ETF Trading Research 4/11/2017

Today’s Trades

We did get some weakness in the markets and they helped us out early as we were up on most every trade short the market, but then the Trump effect started to move in. I put out a warning that the DOW moving up from -100 might signal a reversal after we were down -140 earlier, and we did go all the way positive. I decided not to lock in any profit on the green weekly’s simply because we are used to getting more out of them than 1% to 2%. I still think we will and we are up on all but RUSS from our entry.

I went away from what has worked so well for me on JNUG though and regret that. The dollar kept falling lower and has been my key indicator/reason to trade long JNUG and I got stuck trying to get something out of the other side. Small losses on a couple trades but missed opportunity. I do still think we’ll get some good profit from JNUG but normally I give the other side of the trade and neglected to do so today for some reason. Not like me not too but hey, I have made some small mistakes the last couple days which I apologize and I should be back to normal and will double check my work at this point.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Crude Oil Inventories Tomorrow at 10:30. Nothing else of extreme importance.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

With UVXY turning green on the weekly it’s a possible sign that trouble is afoot in the markets so we have to pay attention to it. It is a rare occasion and there is risk associated with it. We also saw a first in a very long time with TNA turning red on the monthly. We may get back into FAZ which I was tempted to call today as well as SDOW but the last 2 days we saw big moves and reversals so we are still not clear on direction to my hesitation was apropos not to call those two.

Foreign Markets

YANG and EDZ doing ok but RUSS lagging a bit with the meeting of officials in Russia. RUSS tried to go positive today and came close but then fell back. Liking YANG though.

Interest Rates

TMF was a buy at the open today having turned green on the weekly and we are up 1.71% on it.

Energy

I think I might have done well with DWT and DRIP today if it wasn’t for a rumor out of Saudi Arabia that the Wall St. Journal reported. Rained on our parade but I will still call DWT and DRIP both with an oil move under 53. At the same time I for the first time called a UWT long but it never triggered.

UGAZ turned red on the weekly and we had a good trade in DGAZ in the morning. Gave a small amount back in the afternoon but we have to look DGAZ’s way for trades now anytime it is positive at the open.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

The dollar will still be the key metric to watch and we should trade JNUG/JDST inversely to it tomorrow. This trade has worked and again, should not have ignored it today.

From the Trading Desk

Various headlines concerning geopolitical uncertainties have resulted in volatile price action for gold since Thursday of last week.  The US’ surprise attack on a Syrian airbase last Thursday night gave gold immediate legs and allowed it to make 6 months highs.  In response to the use of chemical weapons on civilians, US President Trump authorized a military strike which destroyed a fifth of Syrian President Assad’s working warplanes.  The day following the strike, gold lost all of its gains as the White House elaborated that the US wouldn’t be sending in ground troops nor would it be drawn into a prolonged military conflict.

Gold finished out last week having failed, yet again, at its 200 day moving average and the yellow metal appeared vulnerable to further losses.  Escalating tensions with North Korea and a tweet from Trump quickly reversed that sentiment though.  In a show of US force, Trump sent a Navy carrier strike group into the waters off the Korean Peninsula and then tweeted, “North Korea is looking for trouble.  If China decides to help, that would be great.  If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”  Gold raced higher and closed above its 200 day moving average today for the first time since November of last year.  While the yellow metal just made an important technical close, physical demand is still weak and there are some big levels looming overhead.  Dating back to the high in 2011 of $1,920, there is an eight point down trendline that is currently coming in at $1,290.  This and the psychological figure of $1,300 should be fairly well protected with offers.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

UVXY, NUGT, DGAZ, JNUG, USLV, UGLD, SOXS (3rd day in a row of UVXY so be careful with it tomorrow).

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

DUST, UGAZ, DSLV, JDST, SVXY, DGLD, SOXL (3rd day in a row for SVXY so watch for a bounce) (UGAZ and GASL new red on the weekly and TNA red on the monthly)

Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold) – Went home flat all non-green ETFs (LABD was added back to nightly green sheet because it was same entry price).

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

 


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