ETF Trading Research 4/16/2017
Your Opinion Is Needed
In following so many ETFs and making calls as quickly as I can, I am looking to narrow down the list and get rid of all non-leveraged ETFs, and some others that I just find myself never calling for trades. This includes GLD (already have UGLD and DGLD which move with price of gold , SLV (already have USLV and DSLV which move with price of silver, GDX (will be switching to NUGT and DUST with the issues that JNUG may or may not have for the time being), GASL. BRZI. RGQ. and possibly TNA, TZA and ERY/ERX.
But I want your feedback on this. I know I won’t please everyone with what I do, but my goal is to simply cut down on the clutter in what I read and concentrate more on what’s moving and at the highest percentage moves. It may be a temporary move or permanent depending on feedback and results of trading. Thank you. Feedback to; info@illusionsofwealth.com
Special note on JNUG: I know many of you have traded JNUG and we have had much success with it and JDST, typically getting much better returns than NUGT and DUST. Lately you have seen JNUG lag NUGT. In fact, it didn’t even trigger green on the weekly. This could be because of a lack of demand in the “risk on” aspect to investing in gold mining companies as investors get more conservative this time with the price of gold moving higher. But there was also an anouncement by Direxion ETF Funds that;
“effective immediately, daily creation orders in the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged exchange traded fund (JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further notice. The suspension is due to the limited availability of certain investments or financial instruments used to provide requisite exposure to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. Redemption orders for the Fund will not be affected, and will continue to be accepted in the ordinary course of business.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/direxion-suspends-creation-units-daily-210700250.html
Something similar occurred in 2012 with TVIX, and ETN, which you’ll notice is not on my list of ETFs to trade but we use the ETF UVXY instead. https://www.etftrends.com/2012/02/volatility-etf-trading-volume-jumps-after-tvix-suspends-issuance/
TVIX still trades today, but for right now I will be taking both JNUG and JDST off the list and we will concentrate on NUGT and DUST where NUGT had been outperforming JNUG of late.
I am leaving JNUG and JDST up temporarily but will no longer be calling them live. Some of you may be longer term holding them and it might behoove you to switch your loyalty to NUGT at this point. Overall we are out of JNUG anyway but I know some of you who have written me are holding on for higher prices to sell. The writing is on the wall to sell and I think it might also free you up to trade what is moving in your direction with the green weekly’s when they come as well.
Friday’s Trades
We once again had a volatile day of trading where the markets headed south, came all the way back to positive, then headed south again. While we locked in some small profits before the turnaround higher, we didn’t get back into any positions short the market. We’ll see how Monday comes in as to whether that was a good decision but we did not get the run up into the holiday like we did so many times under Obama, so I will remember that.
We had a couple good trades in JDST and DRIP but YANG, EDZ, RUSS, SDOW, TMF were one’s we had sold once before for small profits (or decent profit in RUSS) and got out with small losses percentage wise as well as one trade in RUSL that didn’t work out. We did hold UGAZ overnight and got out with a little profit in the morning. I decided to go home flat everything with this volatility.
We haven’t seen the real runners of late that we are used to getting at least once a week and scalping was all the markets were giving us as they reversed at least 3 times on us this week with words from Trump either on the dollar or from a bomb dropping in Afghanistan. We just need to have trailing stops to protect our downside. You must put in trailing stops if you are stepping away from trading.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
The holiday continues for much of the world tomorrow for Easter Monday. Japan’s Kuroda speaks overnight and that might be a market mover. 8:30EDT we have NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and that’s about it for data. Should be a somewhat subdued day, barring no moves by governments of the world to shake things up over the next 18 hours.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Stock Market
Nothing has come from China regarding North Korea so far but it seems to be brewing. What it will lead to I don’t know, but we do need to keep an eye on it as the U.S. sends a ship that direction and V.P. Pence meets with South Korean leaders.
President Trump seems to be more active lately and even though Saturday Night Live likes to make fun of the President by mocking him, there are serious things occurring in the world that are no laughing matter. We need to be on our toes more than often as traders right now and if we are locked in something one way, a reversal can come and take away our profit. I am leaning towards scalping what we can get right now but will continue to make trades in the direction of the green weekly for best chance of profit.
Foreign Markets
I do find it interesting that EDZ and YANG have now turned red on the weekly. These foreign market ETFs were supposed to lead the U.S. markets lower but they just aren’t doing it. With both U.S. and foreign markets we are getting more volatility as markets are confused so we have to be faster with profits than normal, even on green weekly’s until things calm down a bit.
Interest Rates
TMF is still green across but I am cautious with it at the beginning of the week so see if we get a market turnaround and no more bombs/rhetoric from our leaders and other countries leaders.
Energy
We got some good trades out of DRIP as GUSH has turned red on the weekly. Can UWT be far behind? Oil under 53 and we have good trades in DWT ahead of us and DRIP more than likely too. This would be my number one trade to look for right now and a little bit easier to judge than the overall markets that keep whipsawing. You’ll notice on Friday I concentrated on DWT, DRIP and JDST for the most part. We got good profit in 2 of these and flat on the other one.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The dollar was up and miners down and even though USLV turned green on the weekly I threw out some caution pre-market and said I wasn’t a fan. USLV opened up at 17.21 and closed at 17.11, hitting a low of 16.81, so caution was and I believe still is necessary.
We need to keep a close eye on the dollar right now and for now will lean towards DUST as I think the dollar still creeps up after bouncing off the 100 support area. DUST closed at 24.72. I will say this though. JDST was never mentioned as having any problems in that article. But if there is a rush to exit JNUG for any reason, which I don’t think the public will necessarily do, JDST could benefit from the selling, so we should keep an eye on it. It closed at 13.77 +10.25% on Friday and we got some of that gain.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
JDST, DRIP, ERY, LABU, UGAZ, BZQ, UVXY, TZA (SLV turnred green on the monthly)
Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
JNUG, GUSH, BRZU, GASL, ERX, LABD, DGAZ, GDXJ, TNA (LABU, YANG, EDZ, and GUSH turned red on the weekly)
Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold) – Went home flat all non-green ETFs (LABD was added back to nightly green sheet because it was same entry price).
See Friday’s Trades above.
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 10% runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high.
