ETF Trading Research 4/17/2017

 

NOTE: Thank you for the feedback. We had a unanimous vote to reduce the number of ETFs which I have done so, removing many. I still may remove more. Today I concentrated on just a three ETFs on purpose and think we handled those well; JDST, DWT and DSLV. I began the day mentioning DUST but it just doesn’t move enough so will stick with JDST for now and see how JNUG performs for possible future trades. If we are just scalping JNUG should be fine but holding shares for any length of time it may make sense to hold NUGT instead.  Having fewer ETFs to follow will help me concentrate better on the ETFs and help with the timing of getting you entry and exit prices. Here is another article on JNUG issues. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/junior-gold-miner-etf-suspends-creation-orders-due-shortage-underlying-instruments

 

Today’s Trades – Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold) 

If you listen to the media, you’d think an attack on Hawaii was imminent. I know from my research the media gets a memo to talk about and they do it collectively. This seems to be their latest. Meanwhile we have silver moving 3 cents lower to 18.38 and gold -6.80 to 1283.10. Platinum and palladium are also lower and dollar moved up over 100 to 100.22 but consolidating now. The end of day move lower caused JDST to pullback to get us out of the trade of the remaining half shares. It’s too bad as I really wanted to take home some JDST but we’ll see what tomorrow brings and if we have an opportunity to get long again. We are presently up 1.1% in DSLV and 1.76% in DWT for the two ETFs we took home. I could have called DUST again in the afternoon but JDST offered the best moves.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Building Permits, Housing Starts at 8:30 and Industrial Production at 9:15 are the market movers tomorrow.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

The move up in the market today wasn’t enough to turn the short the market ETFs red but you’ll notice we ignored them today as Friday I wasn’t comfortable going short the market heading into the Easter weekend. But the market did keep moving lower yet today it reversed completely and we’ll have to look long the market. Trading the volatility of the market isn’t the best for trading as there are so many things going on in the world right now, so I decided to concentrate more on gold miners, silver and oil today. We will lean long the market at present with today’s big move but the data will be important to watch now more than ever as the market looks for reasons the Fed may want to raise rates. It’s a stretch at this point I think to expect higher rates come JUNE and the data over the next month will reveal the truth of this market.

 

Foreign Markets

RUSS completed the reversal of all the foreign short the market ETFs as it turned red today. We will have to pay attention now to RUSL, YINN and BRZU. I decided to keep BRZU and BZQ on the list because they really do make some big moves. Today for example, BRZU was up 12%. We might have got some of that and you will find me calling these two more. I took EDZ and EDC off only because they weren’t as big a mover as these others (Russia, China and Brazil) when they get going.  We want movers and I will go out on a limb and say this too; if you concentrated just on these ETFs; RUSS/RUSL, YINN/YANG and BRZU/BZQ I think you could do well with this service, especially when they trigger green on the weekly.

Interest Rates

Yesterday I said; “TMF is still green across but I am cautious with it at the beginning of the week so see if we get a market turnaround and no more bombs/rhetoric from our leaders and other countries leaders.” We did get the turnaround and TMF was down 19 cents or about 1%. I think it could easily turn red on the weekly coming up so TMV might be the better play righ tnow at 20.93.

Energy

Yesterday I had this to say about oil; “We got some good trades out of DRIP as GUSH has turned red on the weekly. Can UWT be far behind? Oil under 53 and we have good trades in DWT ahead of us and DRIP more than likely too. This would be my number one trade to look for right now and a little bit easier to judge than the overall markets that keep whipsawing.” DWT did take its time but slowly moved up all day. Naturally any war rhetoric will wreak havoc with the DWT trade but it definitely has room to run. UWT has turned red on the weekly so this is the first good sign for it. There may be some more tests of oil up to 53 but 53 should act as resistance now.  DRIP looked weak so never called it but might tomorrow. It was on its second day in the hot corner, so I think just resting as it started the day strong and then went negative.

UGAZ and DGAZ spent the morning trading places but eventually DGAZ took over. I really don’t like the volatility in these so have ignored them today.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

 

The dollar confused us in the morning as it kept falling and falling yet JDST kept going higher. Gold and silver were up too but what got me concentrating on JDST was the fact that gold was up to almost 1300 overnight but fell hard. So even though it was still up for the day in the morning, I saw weakness and went that route. There was plenty of room to run higher on JDST and we got stopped out of the first trade eventually and took the other side briefly on the dollar move under 100, but we were not afraid to get back in JDST and the second trade took off for us and we locked in some good profit. I lean JDST still at this point.

We also got long DSLV and are up on that trade. I did go against the USLV green weekly.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

BRZU. JDST, DGAZ, FAS, SVXY, SOXL, RUSL

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UVXY, BZQ, JNUG, FAZ, UGAZ, SOXS, RUSS  (RUSS and UWT turned red on the weekly)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.

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