ETF Trading Research 1/1/2019
We will have trading back to normal starting 1/2/2019, but I will be working a system for awhile that concentrates on calls only until we get through this choppiness the market has experienced of late. One thing I noticed in my trading is thinking one way based on what I write and having the market go the other way and not switching sides soon enough, among some other tweaking I am doing. I don’t have to make calls one way or the other unless I see a propelling reason to and will be more patient with trades, kind of like I was with the few times I stepped in and made some calls while on vacation, all of which were profitable. Sometimes taking a step back can refresh one to see what’s really going on and with this market, we have many things going on at once.
I want to get us some more swing trades with the trend and will concentrate on that. At the same time, I will pick an ETF or two to day trade long that may or may not be part of a swing trade. There is not reason I can’t call an ETF long for a longer term hold and also day trade it for others that like to day trade at the same time, if price action deems it. I think we’ll get an overall better return this way with the ETF. I’ll also even with swing trades take profit when given now and then. A move of 5% in a short time is enough for me to sell half shares from what I have seen, so will be doing that automatically from now on. From there will implement a trailing stop which will guarantee profit for us, and profit is the name of the game.
I’ll do the Nightly Report but to start, will not make too many predictions one way or the other but let the green weekly do the talking for us and trade around it specifically because it works for us.
The other thing we have to be leary of of late is the up and down moves of the market where we have seen 100 to sometimes 200 point reversals in a single day.
We have to be willing to jump sides until the trend one way is established, no matter whether it is the market calls or commodities.
We should expect at some point a move higher in the markets, oil after the beat down they have had, but right now can go either way still. Futures are lower by 20 points as I type. Gold/silver/miners are also poised for a drop after such a move up and nat gas for a little pop higher after the tremendous beat down on Dec. 31st. It’s currently up +0.058 cents to 3.02 as I type.
I am going to keep more things internal and concentrate on making calls until I see a reason to spend the extra time writing you throughout the day. I find with too much typing that I still miss some calls by typing too much. What you want are good calls whether if it is a few times a day or more or once a day if it is the right setup. All I care about is getting you the right setup and I think being a little more patient for that will help us this year. So I won’t be over trading as I was towards the end of last year. I am going to pick and choose and get our percentage of winners at a good rate and our profitability up to some great percentages too.
The table below is up to date as of end of day trading 12/31/2018. As you can see, a slight lean towards lower with TVIX still in its trend higher, but watch for TMV to reverse as a sign of the market to maybe turn higher. Otherwise, I’ll be open to trade with futures south tomorrow and look to jump on any reversals should they arise. Otherwise, will concentrate on commodities and look for some trades and new trends.
Let’s make it a great year!