ETF Trading Research 1/24/2019

Somewhat a flat day in the market and we started off well with an over 9% profit in UGAZ, but SOXS and TVIX disappointed as they fell harder with the small market move today. While we stopped out of half of SOXS, we will buy back lower to get our average down here Friday or Monday. We may have to sit on these trades till the end of the month to see some real profit and into February for bigger profit, but the chart below is what I see happening. This is the bigger picture I see, not the next few points up in /ES. In fact, we may just get that move up overnight and into the morning and be done with it, but it can drag on to the 29th. From there, a steep decline till the 11th. And after that, the bigger move up to 2800 most likely, and a blow off top somewhere. From there, down to below 2200. The bear market is still with us for now and many will claim a new bull is with us once we get above 2800, but that’s not the case. It will be a wicked fall.

The top in /ES, whether it is 2657 or 2666 will get hit and the rug pulled. Everything is lining up for that on this extended wave up right now over the original resistance of 2620/2630 and we did hit 2626 today, but couldn’t bust lower. The 2620/2630 became support and we reversed to the lows in our ETFs at that point. Should be a tough day to sit through tomorrow and fist part of Monday maybe, but that should be it. .

Meanwhile, we’ll look for nat gas to top out here soon enough and jump on the bigger move down in nat gas with DGAZ next trade. Might nibble at it from time to time when the chart looks good.

Oil will top out here soon and DWT will take over.

Gold we are neutral right now. I got some data that gave me some false signals up so have been ignoring it with the volatility we have seen. Hoever, the dollar is down 21 cents to 96.39. Might be a JNUG trade if it falls below 96.15.