ETF Trading Research 1/30/2019

We didn’t get the move lower just yet with the markets post Fed as they came out with a much stronger stance on their balance sheet, even saying we will use it if necessary to support things. Meaning, more QE if they had to. This in my opinion is throwing up a white flag and surrendering, rather than a bullish scenario hence the shorts again half shares. It is the first time in a long time I have seen the Fed say something so drastic. It made zero sense for them to do this as they had already accomplished through their dovish talk what they wanted as the market had moved higher from Friday with the WSJ report on ending QT for now. I 100% believe we will top out here soon, most likely tomorrow, whether or not we get that 2700+ level. Any sign of bearishness we will jump on board and I will say we are overdue for a winner of 10% plus on several of these ETFs, including DUST which we got long again, TVIX, SOXS, SQQQ and LABD. Oil also got good news today and should be topping out opening up DWT and DRIP for trades.

After hours we are up 4.50 in /ES to 2687 and we will see if we can break 2666 by tomorrow and get us moving down to 2600. Upside is still 2700 but I don’t put a lot of weight on this at this point. We tried a few trades half shares as I didn’t have full confidence in them and stopped out and bought lower. Will add hopefully to a winning position tomorrow as well as add TVIX if we can. Like to see a little move up in the market early on and a big sell off as the day goes on into Friday. Same with metals/miners.

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