ETF Trading Research 10/31/2018

While I made a good call to lean long and sell 1/2 2720 and rest with a trailing stop to 2730, I could have at least got us long some trades today. I missed some signals that I would normally pick up to go long before we went short, so I’ll take the blame for that. We were up 4% on our trades and I thought we might just sink but instead reversed higher to above the 2735 target and after hitting 2737.25 we finally fell to 2710 after hours here. We might have a bounce to 2720 tomorrow morning but I see us having already topped and heading lower below 2700 to 2690 as a decent support area and possibly down to 2660. We took a stab at NUGT pre-market and should have waited till real money came in before doing so as we got stopped out by a penny before a bounce that may have stopped you out with less damage. Metals and miners are an interesting story right now. Dollar did move higher to 97.11 right now and I still see us moving higher putting pressure on metals and miners. But the dollar is also at DSI 95 and telling us a technical bounce may come. Oil got hit today despite the good data. You see why I try to stay away from it. I didn’t officially call it but did say DRIP at 8.54 area would be good and it moved to 8.75 or 2.45%.

We do as I type have 4 of the 5 ETFs higher than where we bought and with some weakness overnight can look to take profit on half shares at some point. I’m looking to get some runners a bit so will try for it. Half shares around +5% is a good target. But have to see where the market is in the AM. We do have Apple after hours tomorrow and if they disappoint, it could be a repeat of what happened when Amazon disappointed, not Facebook on revenues yesterday.

The YANG trade can pay off for us if we get that negative news out of China that seems to come every other day, or futures to crack. I wrote in last nights report that I want to track these more and take some risks for the big rewards.

I will say though, this market is literally all over the place still and it does have another leg down in it before up to over 2800. We are hoping of course that we are catching it in the next 24 hours. Will take some guts to hold shorts into AAPL, but we might be rewarded nicely. Holding into FB earnings got us -1% on a disappointment with SQQQ but it could have been worse. We waited and got in at a decent price I think today. Most of that selling was institutional selling end of day when they were buyers end of day yesterday. I’d like to think we get what we want tomorrow, despite getting those reversal signs I missed in the table below.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

ADP Nonfarm Employment came in good and set the tone for an up day. Chicago PMI disappointed and Crude Oil Inventories were bullish but oil fell.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
I really thought with the fall in oil we wouldn’t get as big a bounce in the market today, but it kept going up to the high end of the target once it broke 2720 first resistance. I’ll look for 2660 hopefully tomorrow and either sell or lighten up on shares before Apple earnings after the bell.
Foreign Markets
This has been back and forth almost every day and if the pattern sticks, buying the dip in YANG should pay off in the morning. Trump was out talking about tariffs once again and the economy in China has been hurting. We could catch a little bit of arunner her back to 76 area in YANG.
Interest Rates
TMV higher after turning to a bull yesterday. Not good for markets in my book the higher rates go.
Energy
Ignored DGAZ today and could have possibly got long UGAZ as DGAZ has signaled a sell. See if we get a further bounce in UGAZ tomorrow to trade.
UWT down and GUSH up big today. Not seeing them move together told me one was right and one was wrong. The one that was wrong was UWT as it should have moved up with the market and with the good data. Total manipulation there. DRIP might have been good as GUSH and DRIP are moving with the markets.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Yesterday I said about JNUG that I prefer we buy under 7 somewhere but we might be getting long JNUG here soon. We got to 7.02 low in JNUG today but traded NUGT as I thought it might offer a better move up as it has been behaving better of late. We overall are still in trouble with metals and miners but it doesn’t mean we can’t play either side. Hope to tomorrow.
Lots of ETFs 2 days in the Cold Corner that can reverse tomorrow. We are already in some of them. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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