ETF Trading Research 10/15/2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Took some good profit from UWT and UGAZ and lightened up the load on most everything going into the weekend. I was tempted to sell everything but technically happy to have exposure to metals, miners and oil, and half of me wanting exposure to Nat Gas, but last 2 weeks in a row we saw an 8 cent dip on Monday’s and I am not a glutton for punishment. We’ll look to buy the dip in all of these.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

No real data for Monday. But Janet Yellen did speak today and sounded upbeat on the economy and signaling a likely rate hike. Nothing changes with the Fed, that’s for sure.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
We haven’t been trading the markets either way and may have missed some upside profit by not trading SVXY. I know I have mentioned it several times and it IS a permanent Trading Rule. Hopefully some of you are utilizing it. But I would be more cautious moving forward and scalp only. It is not a buy and hold opportunity at this point.
Foreign Markets
 The bullish case is still strong for these. Surprising me somewhat. Everything in the stock market rising together. How much is this central banks buying everything? Probably a lot. And I wold be leery of it continuing. Still, SVXY is always worth the risk as there is no fear in this market. Even the VIX is at a record month low so far for the month that is October year that ends in 7.
 Interest Rates
 TMF up 5 days in a row. Slow and steady rise now to over 3%. Using the new system, we would have already taken profit at 3% on half shares. We will be long when it turns green on weekly.
Energy
UGAZ got our loss back and then some. Now waiting to go long again. Not looking at DGAZ at all.
UWT we are headed higher in oil and have a piece of the action. Want to be all in here soon.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

While I did finally get us out of the longer term trade of metals and miners half shares with minimal damage, we are conflicted since we are long JNUG for the swing trade and the New Red Weekly Trade The Opposite Strategy is still doing well. But I wanted to take less risk going into the weekend. Still convinced we move to 1400 gold though. I pointed out some resistance points and we took some profit there. All of what we got out of 1/2 shares we are now lower than where we got out for miners and higher for gold and silver, so somewhat a wash. We’ll see what price action does on Monday and add to shares lower or higher. I prefer we have one more leg lower before going higher, but not sure we’ll get there. Somewhat a tossup with my signals right now, and the main reason I sided with caution. Wasn’t easy after all this time. But we did come out better than simply keeping a 5% stop from the beginning and many of you reported nice proftis on the other calls since. Happy about that.  I have a Seeking Alpha article out waiting for approval from editors and will send out to you as soon as it is approved. It provides the upside for gold still at 1400+ and still one more downturn that can be severe. I critique Harry Dent’s call for gold to 700 but do so in the sense that he has been negative since in 2015 he called for gold to 250. At least now he has upped his bottom price. Mine has been 900 all along and still is on a deflationary credit contraction ala Exter’s Pyramid which you would have read about in my Illusions of Wealth book.

Friday Afternoon Price

Thursday Afternoon Price

 

 

 

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

UWT, BRZU, RUSL

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

DWT, UVXY, RUSS (FAS new red weekly)

 

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit! 

 

 

 

 

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