ETF Trading Research 10/8/2017
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
——————-
I added to the Trading Rules #12 and #13 with #13 probably being the “luckiest” rule of all, meaning taking profit when up on spikes and ask questions later. I did add a new section to start tracking this and the results so far have overall been decent. We got a loss in UGAZ but a gain in USLV, JNUG and NUGt and down a hair on the others. There was so much whipsaw on Friday that we had triggers on both sides, so not the best day to start tracking, but we should see some good results coming from this new strategy.
We got out of some overnight holds with losses in UGAZ, GUSH and UWT but no new trades however we did start implementing Rule #12 and are starting to track these new red weekly’s. In the next week we should start seeing some good results from these. Being that this is a new strategy for the service, that can get us profit before the green weekly hits on most of these ETFs that reverse, I am actually excited about it. I will repeat the ETFs that we are almost salivating at turning red so we can take the other side. If you diversify into each of these that turns red, collectively I see some great returns heading our way; When these turn red, buy the opposite; RUSL, BRZU, YINN, SVXY, LABU, SQQQ.
The last 24/48 hours of trading on Thursday and Friday we saw a lot of volatitlilty. We saw ETFs spike one way, then take a complete reversal and head to new lows. We saw it on Thursday with UGAZ and UWT and for no real reason. No news, no nothing. Both of these will bottom out this week and take off higher. For day trades they will both be buys on dips and I say that with confidence, especially with nat gas, which is down 2 cents. Oil can still fall a bit more before moving higher on its way to the 54/55 level goal.
Metals and miners we saw a V shape drip and rebound to higher highs. It was a great market maker move to get everyone to sweat, then they brought them all to new highs for the day. JNUG is now only down -4.86% and yes, I still have a target of 26 for it. We’ll all have a sigh of relieve once hit and those who did sell pre-Fed and bought lower will be pretty darn happy. The key here, and the reason JNUG and NUGT and USLV may be the trades of the week, is the USD/JPY falling below 112.40 and then 111. We did get a brief moment so far in today’s trading below 112.40 and we’ll see how we open, but expect some volatility with China finally returning to trading.
UVXY didn’t become the trade of the week last week, but we are long and whether or not it shows its strength finally this week, we’ll have to see. I sent out a chart that shows it’s potential from a historic standpoint.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Japan Holiday for “Health-Sports” Day. Can we here in the U.S. petition for that? It is Columbus Day on Monday and bond markets, Fed banks and most of the nations banking institutions closed but the stock market will be open for trading. No market moving data for tomorrow, but overnight (Monday evening into Tuesday morning), BoJ Governnor Kuroda speaks.
This week we have Fed meeting minutes are released Tuesday afternoon and you can expect some volatility as usual. Fed member speak every day this week and they have been very active speaking lately. What could they be defending with so many engagements with the public?
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Metals and miners should continue the mini-bull run up for now, and we’ll put in some trailing stops at this point as I don’t want to ride these down again, should we fall. Here’st the scenario;
- USD/JPY falls it’s stay the course and remain in metals and miners. We need to keep hitting lower lows. Simple as that with this being our number one indicator. Support is 112, 111 next.
- GDX closed over 23.50 which is one of the targets we had. You can use this as your stop should we continue higher on Monday and Tuesday and then have a pullback. 23.62 was the last print. 24 is a resistance level to hit first, then 24.50/60. Prior high was 25.60.
- COT Data for gold and silver wasn’t exactly bullish overall.
- Miners are leading metals and silver leading gold. We have to watch the 1300 level and 17.50 for gold and silver now and see if we can break those. Otherwise, one more test of the lows, which of course not what we want, but the possibility is there. That means that last blow off bottom in metals to the 1240/50 level and USD/JPY to 114.50. It’s the only scenario where I am looking at keeping a stop this time. The confusing part is my longer term trades from 10/3. We are up 5.56^ on the JNUG side of it and a move higher would probably have me lock in some profit. My goal was to wait till the end of the month on these, so any “noise” between now and then, we would have to deal with. But if we did turn green on the weekly, it allows us to then apply the Trading Rules profit objectives above and beyond where we might be at that time. Worth holding out for that potential. I’m trying to improve the Trading Service to not allow what happened with the metals and miners again and even though I had listed in the Trading Rules to sell any ETF that went red on the weekly, I want to on a daily basis stick with this and also take that other side. If you think about it, if we switched to JDST, we would have been rolling in it with profit. I have corrected this weakness and those of you who have stuck around through the trials and tribulations of some of these moves, I appreciate it and my goal is nothing but profit for us all.
Sunday Afternoon price
Friday Afternoon price
Thursday Afternoon Price
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
DWT, JNUG, DRIP, NUGT, YANG, USLV (DGAZ close)
Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
UWT, GUSH, JDST, DUST, YINN, BRZU, DSLV, UGAZ
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
