ETF Trading Research 11/7/2018

We moved up to 2817.75 (as I type) after hours and have the setup for a crash now from the 2818 mark. Ideally we do it overnight here and sit on these trades till Friday. Unfortunately there is still two more levels we can hit in the S&P before the move lower, but hopefully we caught it right this time tonight. I thought the election results with the Democrats taking over the House would kill the markets and that just didn’t happen. And didn’t follow price action today and flip sides. We did well with shorting miners and took some profit there.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow

FOMC the big one tomorrow but Initial Jobless Claims come in early to set the tone. 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Somehow the market took the Democrats winning the House as good for the market. Hard for me to fathom, but that’s what we saw today. From President Trump’s tone at the Press Conference, there was also some negativity going on and Pelosi followed that up with her comments of working together but we know that’s not going to happen. Trump will use Executive Order the next 2 years to try and get what he wants.
Yesterday I posted what Gartman had said about the markets and that we are in a bear market. I do agree overall with him and this is a dead cat bounce within an overall declining market right now. Today’s move may have been a one off move rather than a run in a resumed bull market and that’s how I view it. I did expect a move up after the election and Fed and did mention that, but did not trade it long because I was assuming we would fall first. So not happy about missing the run. Even though, we got long a few ETFs that with any negative noise that comes will hit this market hard. China has data tomorrow too and that could trigger the markets too. But it is the Fed that is overall killing the market by raising rates. They’ll continue to do that tomorrow as the Housing Market continues to get killed. Same thing happened leading up to the last crash. And once we do top out, the target low is 2100. Yes, 2100 for S&P.
Foreign Markets
With China data tomorrow, most likely these ETFs will trade with that data up or down.
Interest Rates
Once again not much action here. Fed will vote to increase rates again on Thursday so have to lean on TMV still.
Energy
Just a small rise in DGAZ today by the close. Still neutral nat gas to leaning with UGAZ still. You can almost trade DGAZ long any day it goes positive after being negative with a trailing stop. If it opens positive, then right now I wouldn’t trust it much. Weather forecasts are pointing to cold through Nov 20th.
Data was negative for oil storage today and DWT had a good day but DRIP did not follow suit. We should lean now to DWT and DRIP.
Precious Metals and Mining
Got the fall in miners today after they gapped higher. We jumped on the JDST pullback and rode it up and sold both it and DUST for decent profit. Still leaning lower but gold and silver did end up flat to positive today, so took the money and ran. Been trading these the best of late.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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