ETF Trading Research 11/29/2017

Posted November 29, 2017

More in a few minutes.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Great day all around today. I’ve addressed each trade below. What we have to be VERY careful of tomorrow though is some volatility and whipsaw by market makers. After a good day of trading, I have learned 1. to go home flat and 2. to trade smaller shares and quicker profit the following day. We’ll look to green weekly’s and some of the new Red Weekly Opposites to trade. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Important OPEC meeting tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims and some more data along with Nat Gas Storage report.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Today we finally played the stock market some, and sold our FAS buy from yesterday for 3.06% and 1.95% profit. Then we went to the short side with profit in SQQQ and UVXY. What does the market feel to you? If Bitcoin is any indication, it feels kind of toppy. We have to pay close attention tomorrow with SVXY turning red on the weekly to this rule: Permanent buy when it opens higher or subsequently goes over prior days close – but will try and call live.

Foreign Markets

BZQ got us some profit today on a Red Weekly Opposite of BRZU and we were out with 2.09% and 1.88% on the trade.

Interest Rates

TMF turned red on the weekly but I hesitated on TMV after it being up so much already. It is a slower move too and we ended up with some other ETFs to trade on a pretty active day. Just look at all the red weekly’s today!

Energy

Such a big move up and UGAZ couldn’t turn green on the weekly to stay in it. DGAZ became the trade today and might want to watch tomorrow as UGAZ is on it’s 3rd day on the Hot Corner list and only one time have I had an ETF go 4 days on the Hot Corner. Tough to be long after such a big move up and that’s why we leaned short, not long nat gas today. At least one of you wrote me and said they got in at a decent price on DGAZ, even though I didn’t make it an official call.

DWT we took a small profit early on and got back in once UWT went red and are down presently. OPEC meeting might throw us some trouble. We’ll just have to see. I didn’t want to take the -1.26% loss on it because it is a Red Weekly Opposite and overall we have done well on these. But I also know not every one will be a winner. So far our batting average is pretty darn good though. Also, when we entered DWT I did say it had just spiked and I don’t really like buying into spikes. Now you know why.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Finally got JDST to do what it should have done the last 2 trading days, head higher. You can tell I am eyeing JNUG still by the fact we attempted a long in it. Our goal was only 2% but it couldn’t muster more than that and we got out flat. Still have to lean short metals but the further we go south in gold, the more I will be eyeing the other side. The good or what I would even call great news is we had JDST go green on the weekly, so the first sign of it turning red on the weekly, if we are not already long, will be to jump on JNUG. I will more than likely at that time call is long all metals and miners. Perhaps the gig will be up soon, but would like to see the move lower to under 1250 come first if we can.

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Monday Night Price

Friday Night Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

Today’s Hot Corner: BZQ, RUSS, YANG, DUST, DSLV, JDST, SQQQ, UGAZ, UVXY (JDST new green weekly)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

BRZU, RUSL, YINN, NUGT, USLV, JNUG, TQQQ, DGAZ (TQQQ, SVXY, BRZU, TMF, UWT new red weekly)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt