ETF Trading Research 11/6/2017
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
Anytime I can work myself out of a trade that I made a mistake not keeping a stop in, I’ll start fresh and be done with it. That was the case with UGAZ and I wanted to get my emotions in check. While I did call UNG at or near the bottom and we had a nice move up in it, it was my substitute at that price for UGAZ and would have preferred to have kept a stop in UGAZ when I discovered DGAZ turned green on the weekly, trade DGAZ and then buy UGAZ when DGAZ turned red on the weekly on Friday. See how nice that would have worked out? That’s what I mean when I said this morning that this was the “straw that broke the camel’s back,” meaning I won’t put us in that position again. I know I have a decent system at profiting and I am cutting out the mistakes and feel I have a clear head overall if I stick with the data with the new system of New Red Weekly Trade The Opposite Strategy. But I will be adding something to this that allows us to profit more on ETFs we may have either stopped out of that ended up moving higher or we profited from and were subsequently out that we could have got back in before they turned green on the weekly. I think there is profit out there we are missing out on and will be tracking these closer for those spots to go long.
For example, the next setup for a New Red Weekly Trade The Opposite Strategy should be DWT and DRIP when UWT and GUSH turn red on the weekly. But if we got our 2% to 5% in both DWT and DRIP, and then got stopped out for some reason, DWT and DRIP need a target price to look for to go long again, just in case they want to continue higher and subsequently turn green on the weekly. It’s this type of analysis that can get us more profit and I am working on that system to not miss those in the future. I hate to say that trading is a work in progress, but trading leveraged ETFs is something I continually try to conquer. If I cut out my mistakes of breaking trading rules, that’s one thing, but from each mistake I seem to find a way to improve the system and I think it is this finalization of the system that has taken about 2 years that those of you who have stuck it out. Thank you!
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Tomorrow ECT President Draghi Speaks. Sooner than later we should have a big Euro drop. It may start tomorrow. This would be dollar bearish when it starts and support gold.
We have JOLTs Job Openings and Fed Chair Yellen speaking in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock late in the day.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Monday Night Price
Tuesday Afternoon Price
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
UGAZ, GUSH, UWT, BRZU, USLV, JNUG, RUSL, NUGT (TMF new green weekly)
Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
DGAZ, DRIP, DWT, DSLV, JDST, RUSS, DUST, BZQ
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
