ETF Trading Research 12/09/2018

No excuses for the trading on Friday. Just wasn’t myself. Broke too many rules and most of you know that’s not me. It’s like once again I am taken over by aliens. I can trace it to certain things I am doing and take 100% the blame and promise to do better.

The day before I said 2700 was about it on the markets as that was our goal and we fell, but for some reason made no calls on TVIX. That’s not normal. Here is what I wrote on Thursday night’s report; “We are close to a resistance area now at 2700 so may have to look short tomorrow again.” Then broke other rules and it just wasn’t good. To top it off I had bad data coming in for 2 days giving me some false signals and I just shouldn’t have traded Friday. The data below is up to date on where we are and we should be back to normal. I do think with the current trades I do think we are positioned well for some bigger runs. And the last sentence below is the setup for the week.

First off, I do think GBTC will open up nicely for us as right now as Bitcoin is up 6% to 3620. We’ll look to take half off after the open at some point and ride the rest with a trailing stop.

It is too early for nat gas and oil data to come out here on Sunday morning, but like where we are especially with oil, and nat gas the weather reports I have seen so far is that the cold snap was priced in for this weekend already and warmer weather is on the way, which should push DGAZ up. The question is, how much of a lingering effect will there be from this storm? Either way, Wed warming up it seems. Demand for nat gas is high now and moving to moderate. This should push nat gas lower.

 

Weather Outlook: A quiet few days that should see sunshine, and warmer temperatures on the way

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-12-07-early-mid-december-rain-snow-midwest-south-northwest-cold-relief

For oil we should see a push to 56 minimum now and possibly 60. Russia was the missing link and since they finally agreed to cuts, and the cuts came in more than expected, oil jumped higher. We bought that dip and yes, it moved lower, but we should see a snap back up at this point. GUSH got hit even harder for no apparent reason but an easily manipulated ETF with lower volume.

That leaves metals. We hit the goal of 1250 in gold I have been calling for. I always attempt some trades when we hit key resistance levels. But gold moved up a bit higher and now we are setting up for a bigger fall from the larger resistance at the 200 day moving average. However, Monday I will trade whatever is positive or goes positive if I have to switch sides.

Monday I am concentrating right now on LONG the markets, short nat gas, long oil (which fits with long the markets) and neutral on gold till I see what prices do and the dollar does.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
After last weeks beat down we are oversold and due for a bounce tomorrow. G20 out of the way. OPEC out of the way. All that is left is Mueller and collusion casualties, which Trump is denying and CNN is taking the opposite side as usual. Which they have been since day one. I’ll be happy when we don’t have to watch news any longer as there really isn’t any news anymore. Most people are stick and tired of the politics and we want to get back to what’s important; Church, our own families and having fun following your passion, whatever that may be. I turned the TV off a long time ago and have no regrets. Now though I need to turn off the internet and just look at charts and I am weening myself off of reading what others say and I think the secret for not just my success, but our success, is sticking with what I know works and ignoring all else. This entire week I am not opening up any other opinions but concentrating on the charts and what’s in front of us.
Foreign Markets
These are secondary to me but BRZU should move up with the markets as a leader.
Interest Rates
TMV should bounce now with the markets for a bit.
Energy
DGAZ see above as weather still in control. It can still be volatile though. 4.60 is the upper area to short from and if we get to that level, a short is appropriate. We may still with some cold hangover, but we were positive in the trade after hours Friday and we’ll see if we get the move down now towards 4 at all. 10 cents up side and a whole bunch more downside in nat gas is how I see it, especially if weather cooperates.
Thursday night I said “We will scoop up some shares maybe tomorrow but also look the other way if nothing comes out of OPEC.” OPEC gave us good news and we should bounce now in oil despite any short term maneuvers that may come. I want to concentrate on the bigger picture here. Look at that darn chart. Oil has move going for it than anything right now. https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/07/investing/opec-oil-prices/index.html
Precious Metals and Mining
Thursday night I said; “Metals and miners might have one more push higher but from there it’s a tough call to see if they can muster a move.” They did bust a move a bit higher but more neutral than bullish right now. And will be bearish soon. I was a bit early on Friday.

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