ETF Trading Research 12/09/2018
No excuses for the trading on Friday. Just wasn’t myself. Broke too many rules and most of you know that’s not me. It’s like once again I am taken over by aliens. I can trace it to certain things I am doing and take 100% the blame and promise to do better.
The day before I said 2700 was about it on the markets as that was our goal and we fell, but for some reason made no calls on TVIX. That’s not normal. Here is what I wrote on Thursday night’s report; “We are close to a resistance area now at 2700 so may have to look short tomorrow again.” Then broke other rules and it just wasn’t good. To top it off I had bad data coming in for 2 days giving me some false signals and I just shouldn’t have traded Friday. The data below is up to date on where we are and we should be back to normal. I do think with the current trades I do think we are positioned well for some bigger runs. And the last sentence below is the setup for the week.
First off, I do think GBTC will open up nicely for us as right now as Bitcoin is up 6% to 3620. We’ll look to take half off after the open at some point and ride the rest with a trailing stop.
It is too early for nat gas and oil data to come out here on Sunday morning, but like where we are especially with oil, and nat gas the weather reports I have seen so far is that the cold snap was priced in for this weekend already and warmer weather is on the way, which should push DGAZ up. The question is, how much of a lingering effect will there be from this storm? Either way, Wed warming up it seems. Demand for nat gas is high now and moving to moderate. This should push nat gas lower.
Weather Outlook: A quiet few days that should see sunshine, and warmer temperatures on the way
For oil we should see a push to 56 minimum now and possibly 60. Russia was the missing link and since they finally agreed to cuts, and the cuts came in more than expected, oil jumped higher. We bought that dip and yes, it moved lower, but we should see a snap back up at this point. GUSH got hit even harder for no apparent reason but an easily manipulated ETF with lower volume.
That leaves metals. We hit the goal of 1250 in gold I have been calling for. I always attempt some trades when we hit key resistance levels. But gold moved up a bit higher and now we are setting up for a bigger fall from the larger resistance at the 200 day moving average. However, Monday I will trade whatever is positive or goes positive if I have to switch sides.
Monday I am concentrating right now on LONG the markets, short nat gas, long oil (which fits with long the markets) and neutral on gold till I see what prices do and the dollar does.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/