ETF Trading Research 12/04/2017

Posted December 4, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Today could have been better without the mess known as UGAZ. But UGAZ I have fought it hard before and came out ok. I think we can really get a good trade out of UGAZ as all the weather patterns point to Dec. 4th being the beginning of the next cold wave. UGAZ is already up to 8.20 after hours or 4.19%, diminishing one of the negative trades we took. I do expect a 20% move here. JDST we will still do what we did last week and continue to buy dips. TMV on watch again.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Some missing data in the chart today on forecasts. Should be filled in by morning. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is the most important. Will we get some weak data? If so, might want to look at shorting it.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

LABU was up early but it gave us a false signal and we didn’t buy the dip even though it was a new green weekly. The markets started off higher and fell all day. UVXY moved up, then fell to a new low before hitting a new high. One to watch. Read my alert on how to trade UVXY that I sent out today. I said we are basing at 13 and thought we might break lower, but didn’t. Could have put a buy at 13 and did think about it. But ironically, for the day, UVXY did not go positive once. Use the rule to buy it at the open or consider the buys at 13 range. One of you wrote me and said you made over 6% on it today. Good job!

Foreign Markets

False triggers in YANG and RUSS on Friday. Neutral right now and waiting for next trigger on a red weekly.

Interest Rates

TMV we took the 2% profit from and sold last half shares for over 1%.

Energy

Could have played both sides on DGAZ after the initial stop out and decided just to take one side when it would have worked out to play both sides. Yet DGAZ has not triggered green on the weekly and maybe 3rd times a charm for it now. A gap up in the morning wouldn’t surprise me.

Oil just never got going enough to consider it. Little pullback but still green on the weekly for UWT and GUSH. Won’t trade DWT and DRIP till we see a red weekly in the opposite.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We took the profit from JDST this morning but thought we would move a little more south before higher. USD/JPY wasn’t making this trade easy so chose to stay on the sidelines. Neither was the price of gold which never broke lower. DGLD still has not triggered green on the weekly. Still have to lean lower but JNUG hitting new lows makes it pop on the radar probably pretty soon.

Monday Night Price

Sunday Night Price

Thursday Afternoon Price

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

Today’s Hot Corner:

DGAZ, LABD, BRZU, DRIP, DWT, DUST, JDST, SQQQ, RUSL (LABU new green weekly and DUST, JDST new green monthly)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UGAZ, LABU, UWT, GUSH, UVXY, JNUG, NUGT, BZQ, RUSS, TQQQ (USLV new red monthly)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt