ETF Trading Research 12/07/2017

Posted December 7, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

The bottom line for today; the more I do this Trading Service, the more I am convinced the Conservative and Moderate Risk trades are the overall way to go. Special note: JDST 4 days in the hot corner so look for JNUG tomorrow if it opens higher than today’s close as a buy. Since tracking this in March, I have never had an ETF go 5 days in a row on the Hot or Cold Corner. At least I have called gold well overall the last month in that we were going lower and we did finally hit the buy zone of 1240-1250. Any bounce up here though I think is still short lived a bit. USD/JPY over 113. Dollar higher at 93.75. Watch both of those tomorrow for agreement with JNUG if they are falling at all.

I didn’t have time to post today the results of all the Green Weekly’s buy at the open, but this is the 3rd day in a row that I have and the results are pretty good overall. Today was a little more tough but technically I can’t count TMF as a red stop out because I had us in TMV where we actually gained 2%. Interesting too that DUST was a loss but DGLD, DSLV, and JDST were all gains. FAS I had signal red but we might have got 2% from it before that. Probably wouldn’t have touched it though, but FAZ we are down on at present a little under 1%. There is a lot to be said in not putting all your trades in one basket, like UGAZ for example, as other trades are there or we wait patiently for them. Today was a rough day though. I admit that.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Most everything related to anything, including the upcoming Fed rate decision next week, hinges on the Nonfarm Payroll data tomorrow.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

We got long FAZ after it pulled back and was in the negative, but the trigger tells us that there may be some underlying weakness in the markets if financials head south. UVXY should come into play if that’s the case.

Foreign Markets

YANG up 1/2% and RUSS up 1% with BZQ up 4.76% today. We did get long BZQ on the BRZU turning red on the weekly trade the opposite strategy. Down a hair in it.

Interest Rates

Sold 1/2 our TMV for 2%. Up 2.89% on remaining shares. Looking for a TMF red weekly to get long remaining shares of TMV and get over 5% on current shares and 2% on the new shares we buy.

Energy

In last night’s report I said we have some work to do in nat gas. Today we woke up to unpleasant moves lower and got stopped out of UGAZ. Below 2.72 and you have to be out of nat gas. The problem is, will market makers take us down overnight or bounce higher. If we bounce higher, we have to look at a good place to exit if still long. I’ll still provide what I see, but have to see where we are in Sentiment (DSI) later tonight.

In last night’s report I said I see oil heading back to 60+ and we’ll look to get long on any further weakness. Over 57 you should be long oil again.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

We have tied a record with 4 days in a row down for JNUG and up for JDST. I have never had since I tracked in March 5 days lower. Odds are we get a bounce in JNUG and NUGT here and a good scalp potential tomorrow. But gold looks like it is still headed lower to the 1220 level now. The Fed should raise rates as expected but may depend on the Payrolls data tomorrow. Every time Gold has risen into an major FOMC, it falls after, and every time it falls before a major meeting, it rallies. And it has fallen over $100 before this one.

Thursday Afternoon Price

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Monday Night Price

Sunday Night Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

Today’s Hot Corner:

DGAZ, LABU, BZQ, DSLV, DGLD, JDST x 4, UWT, SVXY (DGAZ new green weekly and DGLD new green monthly)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UGAZ, LABD, BRZU, UVXY, USLV, UGLD, JNUG x 4, DWT (FAS and BRZU new red weekly’s)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt