ETF Trading Research 12/10/2017

Posted December 10, 2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

I have to re-work the green weekly or moderate trades as the calculations for growth should come from the entry price to the high of the day, so have to sit down with IT and make sure the tracking is accurate for both profit potential and low of day possibilities too. Our goal is to hit the 2%, and sell either all or half and let the rest ride with a trailing stop. Or worst case stop out -2%. The odds are with us that we get more profit from these that are trending, rather than buying any that are not. First part of next week I’ll have it ready to go. Hopefully Monday’s report.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

JOLTs Job Openings the important data on Monday.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Full on bull as we await the “sell the news” for the Fed next week. This literally could be when we finally see a top in the market. Bitcoin mania should also die out beginning Sunday, however there could be some runs higher still. Once the big boys take control of this it will get the gold treatment. Remember who has all the money. It’s not the people mining for bitcoin, and yes, there are ICO’s out there that have managed to acquire large sums of money to put towards blockchain technology and the coins associated with it, and more and more acceptance by retail outlets, there has to be more stability. Right now I have to view it still as a mania and mania’s don’t end well.

Foreign Markets

BZQ gapped down unfortunately but only ended up down 3 cents. It has moved up too much to chase even after the initial decline so have to watch that in the future and hold off going long on a big move for a new red weekly and the opposite. YANG lower and RUSL lower with a slight rise in oil. A good speculation is RUSL I think with the higher price of oil I’m expecting.

Fed meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday with the interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon. Expect them to raise rates which the market expect and for the markets to possibly initially bounce followed by a severe downturn. But market makers may start the downturn on Tuesday afternoon before the expected news. UVXY I expect to have a decent week.

Interest Rates

Rates are headed higher and TMF has finally turned red on the weekly. TMV still has 2% in it if not a decent amount more. We’ll get as much of it as we can.

Energy

Oil looks ready to go here with UWT 2 days on the Hot Corner. 60+ is in the cards.

Nat gas I sent out an alert of fiction and reality on Friday with the fiction being the price of nat gas falling and the reality, everyone in the U.S. experiencing cold weather. I expect nat gas to rise.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Metals and miners got the expected bounce and JNUG did move up but ended up less than 3%. Pretty pathetic bounce for something that has been beaten down so much. We may get a little further bounce by Monday, but one more possibly big move down into the Fed or if we continue to rise, after the Fed. It’s probably best to wait till after the Fed to see the trend, but I do lean long metals and miners the further we fall. If we get down to 1220, I’ll call us all in no matter what. I don’t care about catching the exact bottom. But I do expect the dollar to still move higher with rates moving up and USD/JPY higher too. That will still put pressure on gold, so you may have one more trade in JDST left.

Friday Night Price

Thursday Afternoon Price

Wednesday Afternoon Price

Tuesday Afternoon Price

Monday Night Price

Sunday Night Price

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

Today’s Hot Corner:

LABU, YINN, UWT, GUSH, SVXY (TQQQ, LABU, SVXY new green weekly)

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UVXY, LABD, YANG, DWT, DRIP , DWT (TMF new red weekly’s)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Doug Eberhardt