ETF Trading Research 2/11/2018

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

We managed to get some good trades in JDST and TVIX and then flipped the switch in the afternoon. In Thursday night’s report I said the following; “I’m going to be concentrating on a few areas below for some turns that are coming.” It took us a little time but we did finally begin to establish positions in JNUG, UGAZ, TMF and UWT of which 3 out of 4 are doing great so far. We also caught TQQQ at a good point in time. I actually had sent out an alert “Buy Everything” with JNUG 11 cents from the low and we got in at 11.50. I am expecting good things out of all of these and DWT is 3 days on the green weekly so Monday morning we will go all in for UWT. Maybe it will do us a favor and gap lower. Also, there is an OPEC meeting going on. I don’t think anything said will stop the rise higher now though, but for all of these we will look to the dollar for help and buy on any dips till we are “all in.” Some of these I am expecting 50% moves and you don’t hear me say that too much.

I included below the wrap up of the entire week for “new” trades. Not one loss on any closed trades for a week where we saw two -1000 point days.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

No real data tomorrow but some OPEC chatter.

 

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
We should see a turnaround now on Wall St., but it will be choppy trading at best. This means for day trades we have to be on our toes more and take profits quicker. We have to lean a little on the bullish side of the market at present. Keep an eye out for LABU for a bounce too as it did not go red on the weekly last week like TQQQ and FAS did and even though LABD finally got a green weekly, any market bounce and LABU could lead the way.
Foreign Markets
Keep an eye on RUSL now with oil about to rise. They go hand in hand. Brazil has a holiday.
Interest Rates
I said Thursday that “TMV might have just a couple days left, if that.” Might have got in a day early but we’ll see here shortly if TMF can take off for us. Probably should have called 1/4 shares on it too.
Energy
Thursday’s report I said; “DWT and DRIP are about done and UWT and GUSH should bounce here soon.” They did. UWT is a buy at the open on Monday full shares to add to our 1/4 shares. I will use the open price for entry. I don’t think anything that comes out of OPEC will be negative at this point for oil.
I also said on Thursday night: “Just a little bit more to go for DGAZ and we’ll jump on UGAZ for a nice ride.” We did hit our target in UNG of 21.80 and I immediately called us long UGAZ 1/4 shares. Big move in nat gas should be coming now.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
We are finally happy to have some shares of JNUG and I could have just as easily called NUGT, USLV and UGLD. I am going to use JNUG as my proxy for all of these and monitor it as it will lead all 3 of these higher. It’s a lot of work for me to put in the data for the other 3 but they will all move together now and buy any of them and use what I say about JNUG as a reason to act. USLV is going to take off higher and lead UGLD. I am writing this update before the overseas gold market opens, so we’ll see how the action unfolds. I don’t mind another dip at all to get shares lower. Buy the dip.
Friday Night Price
Thursday Night Price
Wednesday Afternoon Price
Tuesday Afternoon Price
Monday Night Price
Cryptocurrency
 Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

 

 
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