ETF Trading Research 2/14/2018
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
After a slow, choppy day yesterday, market makers came out fast and furious right from the get go this morning. All I could do was go with what I had said pre-market on where I liked certain ETFs and try and guide you today as some things early on didn’t add up to me.
Here’s the long version;
Lot’s of bullish talk on metals and miners. And here I thought higher rates were bad for miners? Gold has gone up with the dollar falling for the most part. Gold up, dollar down.What happened pre-market messed with a lot of minds, including mine this morning. CPI higher (bad for gold). Retails Sales miss (good for gold). Gold originally dropped hard on that data. Then the crazy open. I had a buy in on JNUG over 14 that some took but today was somewhat a Janet Yellen mystery other than that dollar/gold relationship. Gold and dollar were both up for a bit at the open. Market I thought didn’t like higher inflation and rates, yet it goes up 250 points. That said, careful what you wish for Mr. Market. Tomorrow can be the complete opposite of today. JDST has put in a good afternoon base at the 50 level and JNUG a top at the 16 level. I’d keep an eye on the dollar to see if we have any follow through tomorrow. Watch for a double bottom in the dollar (possible extension over and it is falling as I type after hours) in morning and be careful of a reversal. Right now, rates higher, bonds lower, market higher, gold higher and dollar lower. Tomorrow watch if rates go lower with the dollar higher, market lower, gold lower and bonds higher. Gold sentiment is 84 and Euro 80 and over bullish for both in front of a Chinese New Year. With the Chinese New Year starting tomorrow and an entire week off for their markets, it’s a perfect time for bullion banks to push gold lower. Last year they pushed gold higher before the Chinese New Year and then gold shot up the week they were off. This year it could very well be the opposite. If you were a banker, what would you do? IMHO, nothing reacted today the way it should have but maybe rates higher with CPI data. That is supposed to be dollar positive/gold negative (as it started out that way). Market and gold went higher (even with bad Retail Sales) and the dollar lower. Could it just be a ploy to to trap the gold bulls? I for one look forward to see the action tomorrow and all of the above is micro basis only. The next week should be fun to trade and I would simply keep an open mind.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Philly Fed and PPI tomorrow along with Initial Jobless Claims. Nat gas storage at 10:30.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Tuesday Afternoon Price
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
