ETF Trading Research 2/19/2019

The morning started out with futures down 9 points but we couldn’t break through 2764 and ended the day at 2777 for /ES. They still have markets pinned positive, but TVIX, SOXS and LABD are all up slightly today with LABD up 3%. DWT was up and down but DRIP which we are not in ended the day positive too (these will go with the market overall).

SQQQ was only down 7 cents today and all of these shook off the move up in /ES to the 2787 area as we are 10 points off the highs. VIX over 15 then 16 and TVIX over 36 will eventually signal the bottom is in. We’ll get there. The other ETFs will follow suit.

Nat gas we have to lean long now with the DGAZ sell signal.

Meanwhile I tried to say JNUG was underpriced early on and a 2% trailing stop would work. The dollar continued to fall and gold took off higher. 1370s can still be in the cards but from there we still have one more leg down where we can get in. We should look for any sign in gold though to go short at this point, which means any red in the 4 ETFs we follow. The next bottom is still a ways off as far as to what extreme, but overall, big picture, this is what I see;

*Markets get the pullback to 2650, then from there can test 2600 or take off to 3000+. Once we top out there, TVIX will be a 100% return trade of the year for us and we ride it and others short as /ES falls all the way to the 2200 level.

*Gold can get to 1370s but a pullback under 1300 and low 1200\s still possible with the overall market fall to 2200 (similar to the 2008/2009 crash in markets and miners.

*With this volatility will come some great trades and my nightly report has on the green weekly still been our leading indicator of direction. All we have to do is trade with it and the rest of the year we will.

*Trump was out today saying how the stock market would be down 10,000 more points if Democrats got elected. He should be careful taking all the credit for this market. This market is built on a house of Fed cards that eventually will give way. All that is unknown is the timing of the approximately 800 point drop from the highs that eventually will come first. He’ll take even more credit once we hit those highs and then things come tumbling down where he will get the blame. The move after the 2200 level still has us zooming higher though. We just don’t know who will take credit for that yet, Trump or the Democrat who might beat him. 2020 will be one heck of a year. Gold won’t care too much but if we do get a Democrat elected, you can bet it will be 4 years of bliss for gold.

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