ETF Trading Research 2/6/2018

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Stayed a little conservative today and took profit when handed, mostly because of the technical issues I was having. It cost us though an easy trade in TVIX that I would have called but was distracted and not happy about that. We did get in JDST and hopefully you bought DWT and profited some. I put in a pre-market buy on TQQQ and it moved up nicely. I should have put another one in when it retraced back to that buy price again. Some of you told me you got good trades in and profit on TQQQ and one of you wrote me on buying JDST once TD Ameritrade opened up for trading at 7AM EDT and bought it for 56.88. Great trade! See below on oil and gold.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

3 Fed members speaking tomorrow and Crude Oil Inventories.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Well, the loser of a company Credit Suisse is closing the XIV ETN. It couldn’t give the trader a fair price so they decide to close it. But neither could SVXY. I would stay away from these for now, even though they started trading again. Credit Suisse also had issues with TVIX years ago. I may go back to UVXY just because I hate companies that do this. It’s just that TVIX has been an easier trade to manage it’s moves with larger share scalps.
Markets look to continue higher in the next week. Dennis Gartman said their would be more sell offs. CNBC is running shows about the crash. Market takes off 500 points. While we knew it was going to bounce, or assumed it would, I only gave FAS and TQQQ as options. TQQQ worked out well.
Foreign Markets
Yesterday I said “YINN for a possible pop if it goes positive for the day.” It was 3 days on the cold corner and it moved up over 5% and you could have easily bought it when it went positive.
Interest Rates
Neutral here but will lean TMF.
Energy
Still bearish oil. But tonight’s data was bullish oil so while being bearish and thinking oil will go under 63 and head towards 60, we have to look at the data tomorrow and wait for it before entering a trade.
DGAZ is green on the weekly and still a buy at the open. Was up most of the day and pulled back. UNG only got down to 22.82. Still has a point to go if it is going to hit that support area at 21.80. See how it trades, but getting closer to the UGAZ call.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Yesterday I said; “I hate to say it, but despite the fact we had more calls today in buying metals, the dollar is moving higher and we can still get JDST to move up vs JNUG. Gold below 1330 and we must be in JDST. Keep an eye on the dollar for clues in the morning.” I made the call pre-market to buy JDST if gold fell below 1338 as it had bounced up. Some of you I think got a nice trade out of JDST today.
Check out the chart below for our JNUG targets. This is the ideal situation that we start buying once gold breaks 1300 and heads to 1287. We can try to ride JDST a little more but locked in profit with gold coming within 2 bucks of support at 1317 (so it might bounce a day) and also the dollar falling a bit end of day. Dollar is still key here. Also of course the price of gold now breaking 1317 and heading to 1300.
Tuesday Afternoon Price
Monday Night Price
Friday Night Price
Thursday Night Price
Wednesday Afternoon Price
 Cryptocurrency
 
 Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

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