ETF Trading Research 3/11/2018

Posted March 11, 2018

ANNOUNCEMENT; The updated for 2018 version of Buy Gold and Silver Safely is available on Amazon.com. In it I provide an updated view on the economy and where we are headed, along with fresh data and analysis on the gold market. I think you’ll appreciate it and get a better understanding of why and how gold fits into a diversified portfolio. Feel free to post this link to social media or send by email to others. You’ll be doing them and you a good service as the more who know about what’s going on, the more who will discover precious metals investing and drive prices for us higher in the long run.

Go to this link: http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/the-book-buy-gold-and-silver-safely-2018-update-announcement/

Also, if you do purchase it, please be so kind to leave a review. It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Friday was a quiet day for trading for us as I wanted the market to sort itself out. No way I thought it would keep powering higher, but we got out of UWT and DRIP without any further damage early as they fell harder, only attempted TVIX once for a 10 cents loss, and for the week we are 1/2 in JNUG and actually up on that trade, but I do expect a further dip. Part of trading is not getting in too much trouble when you think one way, and the market does the opposite. The setup though by Wednesday is for the big move to come that I thought would come towards the end of last week. I didn’t get stubborn and keep us in DWT, DRIP, TVIX, TMF and SQQQ as I planned to. Each one of these is alive and well after we top out here and in a bigger way than most of you think. But Monday we have to lean long and TQQQ is a buy at the open but with a goal of scalping only. It should already be up some and the rug will be pulled from stocks soon enough. I just don’t know if it will be Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, but it’s coming. So if any ETFs we go long reverse and go negative, we are out. Any of the 5 above go positive, we will be long. But Monday morning I will be hesitant to go long those 5 unless /ES is above 2800. Then it’s a matter of is this a quick blow off top and reverse, or will we reverse even before the market opens after reaching 2800 overnight. We’ll just have to see how it looks and judge. I think I will put on the automatic trades of all 5 of those if they open positive or go positive, with a stop out if they go negative and a re-buy or rinse and repeat until we take off with them. I prefer it not come till Tuesday and we get a blow off top on Monday. Was a quiet weekend with Trump’s Tweet’s, and no real important data on Monday, so market makers should continue us higher. TQQQ should be the buy and I’ll judge in the morning if so.

DGAZ I got us out with a 4% profit at end of day and nat gas is up presently. Like to see it move up higher and we will jump on DGAZ again whether it does or doesn’t in the morning as UGAZ has turned red on the weekly.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

Have to lean bullish Monday with a turnaround expected as stated above. Not only are markets most oversold. but all we need to do is watch interest rates tomorrow and look for the turn to know when to go into the 5 ETFs. As rates get closer to 3%, it’s game over for the markets.

I did some listening to Gerald Celente over the weekend. I haven’t listened to him for years, as just like Peter Schiff, they are great speakers and persuaders, but they say the same story over and over again. Their economics is correct mind you, but the “when” is the real question. I try and play both sides and have been guilty of taking the negative side as well. But at least with gold you can see I got a pretty good handle on it. What I like about listening to Celente’s last two videos is that we are in agreement on rates. He sees higher rates as a big problem for the markets. He said so Feb 6th and he said so again March 1st, before this last run up. We have a Fed meeting coming up and with this latest jobs data, the Fed will raise rates. But Celente and I agree, and I am writing about this in my update of the Illusions of Wealth book for 2018, wages did not move up. Without higher wages, you won’t get the push the economy needs from consumers spending more and the market should wake up to this along with the fact that higher rates have killed housing. It’s deja vu all over again for housing and the push for higher rates by the Fed. Can markets still move higher because money is thrown at it? That’s partly the Trump effect but also the Fed doing some buying I’m sure too. In fact, the market moving higher is all this economy has going for it, and like Celente says, they are not the same. Economics will win out over markets at some point. And I think we get an ugly move coming, still with the S&P under 2500. I think TVIX will move up with volatility, but we have to be patient with that trade. I am aware of some big options trades in the VIX moving up over 50 by April 6th. That’s a huge move considering it’s in the 14 range now.

TVIX is 2 days on the cold list and if for any reason we can get 3 days on it, in 13 months I have only had one ETF go 4 days on a cold (or hot) list. If we don’t get 3 days in a row, that’s fine too. We will look to trade it long. And if you are trading this, just realize there is more risk with it. You have to accept that risk with it and be prepared for anything, including losses. I try to minimize the losses, but again once it went negative last Thursday, should have followed my rules and abandoned ship. No one said anything and I need you all to speak up so I don’t get stubborn with it if it ever goes negative like that. It’s silly to still trade it and I need to not second guess what I know is a fact; it will continue lower and almost always does.

I know if you stuck with just the market calls and commodity calls, or just the gold calls, you can do well. TVIX offers a different potential and that’s why I trade it. The beginning of the year we were trading UVXY and I said it could double at some point this year. It did in the first month. We are getting a gift again of a fall and we should be able to ride it up for good profit soon.

Foreign Markets

YANG turned red on the weekly which isn’t a surprise being the markets shot up. BRZU green across just like the old days. YINN, BRZU and RUSL may continue up Monday, but I don’t expect bigger runs as I think the market will turn.

Interest Rates

TMV one day green weekly, the next red weekly and the one after that green weekly again. That’s not an easy market to trade. TMF should be a long later in the week and rates are the key to everything right now market related, so let’s keep a close eye on them so it gives us direction. The market is under the false impression that higher rates are good for it. They’re not.

Energy

Oil was a one day wonder and we got out flat on DWT but lost some on DRIP which never got going Thursday. These two should both come into play by Tuesday possibly. Oil lower is not good for the market so is another indicator we can use to judge which side to take.

I want to get a lot more from DGAZ and we’ll get long as soon as it makes sense. Any negative move in nat gas, go long.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Dollar up 2 cents as we speak to 90.11. Will be expecting a move up in the dollar still and pressure on gold and silver along with miners. We 100% want this as we have more shares to buy lower. I am banking a 50% return on this once we are long, minimum, so hold on tight once we are long. You know me and how I like to take profit, and we already got 10% from it once, so let’s not get shaken out this time and depending on the severity of the move lower, see if we can stick with our price targets and once in, not be as concerned with any further weakness, but ride it out till we get going higher in gold, up over 1377 finally and then 1400.

Notice that DUST, DGLD and DSLV all turned green on the weekly with only JDST a laggard. All 4 should be good buys on Monday. DUST might be your best bet pre-market because JDST always has a wider spread.

I will make a special note here that the gold silver ratio dictates that on the way up, once we bottom out here, silver will outperform gold. USLV should be a nice addition to JNUG. You can use the same strategy on it on buying the dip as we keep falling to establish a longer term position. For those new here, I am only making the JNUG call, but you could do the same thing for NUGT and UGLD too. I am automating the service where I can track more ETFs without having to type in all the data each alert I send out, so have narrowed it down to just JNUG as our proxy for best risk vs reward potential. I’d rather spend my time on analysis than data entry, if you know what I mean.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Doug Eberhardt