ETF Trading Research 3/4/2018
ANNOUNCEMENT; The updated for 2018 version of Buy Gold and Silver Safely is available on Amazon.com. In it I provide an updated view on the economy and where we are headed, along with fresh data and analysis on the gold market. I think you’ll appreciate it and get a better understanding of why and how gold fits into a diversified portfolio. Feel free to post this link to social media or send by email to others. You’ll be doing them and you a good service as the more who know about what’s going on, the more who will discover precious metals investing and drive prices for us higher in the long run.
Go to this link: http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/the-book-buy-gold-and-silver-safely-2018-update-announcement/
Also, if you do purchase it, please be so kind to leave a review. It would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
This was written before trading opened in Asia. Like to see U.S. futures fall with all the negative headlines from Saturday and Sunday.
After getting 11.22% out of TVIX on Thursday, I waited a long time before even mentioning it on Friday and ended up breaking a few rules with it. I want to repeat these rules and those of you who are with me longer term know these rules and need to speak up if you see me go rogue.
- Should have only attempted 1/2 shares after failing once with it. I did at least call us out quickly there.
- Buying TVIX or UVXY when they are down for the day. Reason; harder chance to profit and they typically keep falling. They did.
- When /ES futures broke higher out of a range, that was a sign to sell.
- No green weekly in UVXY and should not have taken home.
- UVXY was 3 days in the hot corner and it told us to stay away from it.
The day trader in me saw it go from 11 to 10 or -10% and tried a trade there, then saw it rebound off the lows in what looked like a reversal, only to hit new lows. Once it broke the days low, it was another sign to exit (#6). How many more signs does one need?
Now that we are in this situation, there was news over the weekend that may help us in that Trump expanded the Trade war to Europe with a tweet about putting tariffs on auto imports. This would have been good if it occurred during market hours for us to get out of the position and it may have carry over into Monday to exit our position. I won’t get greedy with it. I want out and to regroup. The market can go either way right now and I don’t see a clear trend. Peter Navarro was on the speaking circuit today saying Trump’s March 7th scheduled Tariffs for aluminum and steel will not exempt any specific country and Canada, our largest trading partner overall and especially for steel imports isn’t happy about it. Love to see Monday the market open down and I’ll see what we can do to sell TVIX if I see any strength in the market after the dust has settled. Perhaps something new will occur as the headlines kept rolling in on Saturday too.
The good news is we locked in 5.90% on the SQQQ trade we carried overnight and JNUG is still up nicely for us overall. We did even have JDST trigger red on the weekly but are not out of the woods yet with it until we get all the other gold plays red on the weekly. The dollar can still put pressure on gold and we’re fine with that as we want our last 1/5 shares lower. I did say early on when we are around 14 with JNUG “the Day trader in me wants to sell here and lock in profit.” That might have got you who are day trading it to lock in some profit. Assuming we just fall now to get our last shares, the next move over 14 may be the last for a few months. The goal to get to over 20 would be next and we’ll see how we do on our goals of 50% to 100%+ on it.
It was easy Saturday and so far Sunday to see headlines that support volatility;
Trump Threatens Europe: “We Will Tax Your Cars”
“Descent Into Hell”: China Warns Of Potential War With US Over Taiwan
Carmageddon 2.0: Auto Sales Slump As Hurricane Bump Fades
A Tiny Island Nation You’ve Never Heard Of Has Become A Global Battleground
Change Is Coming: China Is Accelerating Its Plan For A Military Base In Pakistan
Trump tariffs could emerge as a black swan event for stocks, one long-time Wall Street bull warns
Lindsey Graham: Fighting A War With North Korea Would Be “Worth It”
Italy election: Voters cast ballots in unpredictable contest
Here’s why market volatility is back, and likely here to stay
Bigger picture; there is a general consensus in my inner circle of trust that the S&P will head back below 2500 after this current move up is finished. There will be plenty of profit to be made in TVIX if that’s the case. Some really big profits. Let’s see what Monday morning looks like and whether we need to pull the plug or not. If we do, we will get back in and ride it higher. I’m confident of that. TVIX is a permanent buy when it is positive right now with a stop if it went quickly negative in the morning, rinse and repeat for the run higher. Ride the upside and limit the downside. The upside is just too great not to keep going for it. But don’t break the rules.
Note; the moving averages in sentiment for gold, silver and S&P are all still red. That’s a good sign they keep moving lower too. But a stop is a stop for TVIX.
Decline then summer rally for stocks. Then Mises Crack Up Boom I have written about in my book Illusions of Wealth.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is the big one at 10:00. I am hoping TVIX can hang around till then and if we get a negative reading, look out for the markets.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
