ETF Trading Research 4/15/2018

 

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

I hate being right about something and missing it by one day, hence my late alert on Friday post the bombings in Syria. But as futures start to trade on Sunday here and I see it as something that has blown over, I am happy we got a decent price I think on the trades we are long; TQQQ, LABU,BRZU and possibly RUSL but some more sanctions related to Syrian chemical supplies are supposed to come down on Monday. All in all, the worst might be behind us and the market has permission to zoom higher. However, Syrian forces are retaliating some but it looks like futures are saying “so what?” – so far. That’s nice to see. There can still be some back and forth with China, Russia and even Iran and Israel’s timing in bombing there, but futures are up for a reason.  We’ll find out soon if the bottom is in and we can get our bigger gains. Remember, we already took 10% from RUSL once. I expect double digit gains from our current positions long the market. Trump of course will more than likely about 4:30am Tweet something about Syria or Assad, and you can bet Bolton is wanting to go in and do more. He won out a day later than I thought and what was it, a week after him being in charge we were bombing someone? /ES up +14.25 to 2671.50 and /NQ up +44.25 to 6685 as I type this Sunday 9:17pm EDT.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Retails Sales early and 3 Fed members speaking tomorrow.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
To make money in volatile markets is what trading is all about. Investors who buy and hold for the long run simply don’t understand that if you follow some rules, these leveraged ETFs can make you some money by trading both sides of the market. I want to show that we can do even better than we have in the months to come and finally catch a trend. My mind is more free to see both sides of the moves now and quite frankly, only want us on the right side. The hard part I hope moving forward will be; when to take profits.
Foreign Markets
We should see a move up in BRZU, YINN and RUSL (assuming sanctions turn out to be meaningless with the sanctions already placed on Russia) with the U.S. markets now. There is an outside chance they outperform too, and we are long two of them and should have eyes on YINN as well. There is still a trade war with China, so a bit more hesitant there.
Interest Rates
TMF up today. TMF and TMV still trading places each day. There’s no trade here right now. I think I have said that 3 days in a row now.
Energy
Oil can still go either way. The more we move up, the bigger the fall will be, but GUSH and UWT are green on the weekly with UWT green on the monthly. I more than likely would still go long DWT or DRIP if they ever open positive, simply because of their ability to explode higher. What we don’t know however, is will oil still go up with the markets since we lean and are on long the market. I think we should trade DWT and DRIP on their own accord if they open or go positive any day this week.
We should look to get long Nat Gas tomorrow, especially if we get a gap down for any reason in the morning.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The dollar kind of threw me for a loop early on with JNUG but we did get in on a trade where you may have profited with a day trade. I would have preferred to hold it over the weekend as insurance, but we held USLV only and we’ll see what Monday brings. We can still move up a hair for a scalp, but the dollar may very well go up now that all is somewhat, or perceived somewhat calm since the bombings may be over with. Anything can till happen with this unpredictable administration, whether it be the continued hounding of it by the FBI over Russia and porn stars or what have you, but the market has heard enough and should start to move up and ignore more and more this feud that I personally am sick and tired of. Let’s move on and do what makes sense for Americans and I don’t know about you, but have turned my TV off for the most part, including CNBC. I can watch the charts and see things move against me if there is news faster than CNN or Fox or CNBC can finish announcing it. I just see those kinds of things dying down and I think we start to see some runs come soon in our favor. For metals, I would like to see one more low and the only question in my mind is “how low.” I am going to remove the stop on USLV and ride it down if we move lower, and get our last shares as close to 9 as possible. JNUG any run towards 13 may have us all in. Don’t know yet. I just know this should be the last run lower before the summer move higher.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

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