ETF Trading Research 4/23/2018
Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):
We are now all in for the next move up with TQQQ, SOXL, LABU and 1/2 in for BRZU, YINN and RUSL. The latter 3 may end up doing better than the first 3 which is why I am hoping for a down move in the morning for them to scoop up remaining shares.
TVIX couldn’t break out with that move down to a fresh low in /ES. Is this our lead indicator of strength now? The fact that it is failing to break higher highs when /ES keeps breaking lower lows? Could be.
Google or Alphabet had good earnings and shot up over 4% and then fell. Taking a lot still to get this market higher as we had good data all around today. TMF moving higher with a break on rates might just do the job. It did move up from 17.93 where I mentioned it by a little. High of 18.01 so far.
UGAZ we once again played well and got some profit that we lost on Thursday. I will have us cautious right now on UGAZ as sentiment has risen some and it may be due for a pullback before moving higher as it failed to break out today. The trade worked out well for us though.
USLV and JNUG may be at a technical bounce area because DXY had such a big move up, but not chasing this higher or buying half shares just yet. As I said in one of the alerts, I think we have a dollar move higher for a bit longer and that top may coincide with Euro bottom at 121. There is one more level lower I would like to see hit on gold. Pretty good two day downturn though eh? Just because of that part of me wants to be long 1/2 shares USLV and JNUG. We may just go long them tomorrow on any strength and debate on whether it is a longer hold depending on what the dollar is doing.
Oil is very close to topping out here. We are very close to resistance at 69.55 and 70 and topped today at 69.06. We are down 3 cents after hors to 68.88 from the close. With the red weekly hitting on both UWT and GUSH, and with sentiment so high, coupled with us being near resistance levels, I have to like our odds here.
We may go long SGG the sugar ETF tomorrow with sugar sentiment all the way down to 8.
The following is a daily chart and I offer this as a good swing trade for those who have the extra cash to put towards something. Buy low, sell high. SGG at 24.03 I think is low and will move higher very soon.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Consumer confidence and New Home Sales the big ones tomorrow.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
