ETF Trading Research 4/12/2017

Today’s Trades

I made some specific comments to the day trades and green weekly swing trades below. Some observations that show of late we are not getting any of the day trades to run higher like we normally get. Even JNUG was up less than 2% today. But the green weekly’s are consistent profit making trades and if we stick with them you’ll do better with this service. They trump whatever I say and are more reliable for re-entry even after a bad day. Not always, but if up for the day it is safe to enter them if still somewhat newly green on the weekly. We also got some news that shook us out of a good trade in JDST today with Trump talking down the dollar.

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Tomorrow we have Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, PPI (MoM) (Mar), and Michigan Conumers Expectations and Sentiment along with Nat Gas Storage and U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

This is the second day in a row where I sent out a synopsis of how the green weekly ETFs were doing and most were doing well, only to have a reversal. But this time we did lock in some profit on some and got back in again to see if we can continue the micro trend lower.  Futures need to move below 2336.25 for some magic to happen. We are close with futures at 2340.75. This is also a potential bounce area so we have to be careful with our shorts. But break below that and we have a steep drop to 2294. That is why we are back in short this market. But we are up against a masterful market mover or at least a person the markets believe in and that is President Trump. Almost every time the market is ready to break down he comes in like Mighty Mouse to save the day. It is amazing to me how powerful he is in doing this but at the same time, as Guy Adami I think his name is on CNBC said today; it’s not good that he did this to push the dollar around.

Foreign Markets

RUSS took off for us today and we locked in 4% to 5% profit and are back in again. YANG and EDZ are still poised to move higher. BZQ still on watch.

Interest Rates

While we did lock in some profit in TMF today, we got back in because it is still showing strength. I wanted to protect the downside today and viewed the kumbaya love fest between Tillerson and the Russian leader (although they weren’t on the same page) as a reason to be cautious as the market was taking whatever they were saying as bullish and I had fresh in my memory what happened yesterday with a complete market turn around. Locking in profit and knowing you can always get back in is to me worth it in those cases.

Energy

We simply need to keep oil under 53 and have a push towards 52 now and quite possibly be early for a run below 50 again with our DWT trade. DRIP will be a little more volatile, but if we can get the ball rolling, we’ll get our 10%+ trade I have been trying to get for us.

UGAZ I am doing a little flip flopping with and seeing if it has one more chance to surprise us higher. Should have probably scalped it with the 30 cents it gave us today though. I think I got caught up in the Russia/U.S. speech a little too much. Always feel free to scalp non-green ETFs. You don’t need me to tell you to take profit when you are up. Just do it. 1/2 shares at least.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Yesterday I said; “The dollar will still be the key metric to watch and we should trade JNUG/JDST inversely to it tomorrow. This trade has worked and again, should not have ignored it today.” The dollar started out lower and then turned positive for the day and we were close to a breakout in our JDST trade. Then Trump happened. I saw immediately something that didn’t make sense and tried to get out an alert quickly but picked the wrong time to copy a chart and show what was going on. So by the time I got the alert out, any profit in JDST was gone and we got out about flat. It also cost me that I didn’t jump to JNUG after learning about what Trump said. I had mentioned this in the past but didn’t think today of all days he would be saying it, when the dollar was only up a few cents. Caught me off guard. We’ll see the lasting effects into the morning and make a judgement call then on what to do.

Silver ETFs have turned green on the weekly again. I see silver at 18.51 presently, up 22 cents. We have to be careful here with the reversal of the Trump effect with the dollar still, so keep an eye on it for confirmation of metals moving higher. We are close to 1300 resistance too in gold and also 100 as a bounce area on the dollar (currently 100.06). SLV and USLV are a buy at the open tomorrow with stops please.

 

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

SOXS, DRIP, RUSS, TZA (SDOW, SLV and USLV turned green on the weekly and TMF green on the monthly)

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

SOXL, GUSH, RUSL, GASL, TNA

Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold) – Went home flat all non-green ETFs (LABD was added back to nightly green sheet because it was same entry price).

The one’s highlighted in yellow are the current holds overnight and percentage gains. Several of these like DWT, DRIP and JDST could have been scalped for profit and I may just have to start calling scalps for smaller profits rather than waiting for blastoff on some of thse. For those new to the service, we can catch a run on some of these so I hold a little longer. Normally I take 1/2 shares off and get a decent profit, playing with their money waiting for a potential blastoff, but we just haven’t had that of late. Instead a profit turns to a loss and we stop out which isn’t why we day trade these. You’ll notice the green weekly’s have a much better result in the % Gain/Loss column.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 10% runners. I will continue to do this, but yesterday we got taken out on a Saudi Arabia rumor on DWT and today on a Trump comment about the dollar. I can’t help with the news but that’s the risk of day trading. I could have jumped to JNUG again but did not. I only said that over 7.45 it could go to 8. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules. It is a Trailing Stop from the high. Notice how GUSH is still green on the weekly but from the high down -10%? Doesn’t this make you want to be in DRIP? Which we are? But oil is a little fickle however I think poised for a run lower here. Just needs to stay under 53 and DWT and DRIP can run, which is why we day trade them, looking for that run. The big difference between UWT and GUSH also shows that these don’t always trade together. Lastly, I sure wish JNUG would have triggered before NUGT like it always has. It has kept me from being as bullish as I should be gold and metals. Bummed about that as you are.

I do realize SOXL is missing below. I have to go back and check what is going on, but like someone mentioned to me today, maybe I have too many of these long the market ETFs and just need to cut down on them. Share your thoughts if you can.


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