ETF Trading Research 4/5/2017

Today’s Trades

 

We took some good profit from UWT and GUSH as well as GASL from yesterday and got out of the remaining shares with decent profit after the oil report came in worse than expected. We beat CNBC to the punch too. We then picked up the opposite side of oil with a trade in DWT which we are sitting on profit.

Got long DGAZ and are up on that trade. Played with JNUG a couple times for small losses. Had a decent gain in JDST but missed the sell point by 6 cents (should have scalped my normal .50 but got a little more greedy than normal with the dollar bust out higher). The Fed rained on that parade and we took our 2% profit and jumped shipped to JNUG which we are presently as of the close up 2.65%.

Also got long RUSS and end of day SDOW, BIS, TZA and TLT. I want short exposure is the main reason for the last 4 but RUSS is simply a short oil play and we are presently up 1.4%.

I realize that most of you can’t play every single ETF but you have to look at charts and see what has good potential with my calls. You know I have been eyeing DGAZ for awhile and that I didn’t trust UGAZ. You know the oil report wasn’t good and either DGAZ or DWT would have been decent risk vs. reward trades. Metals are more difficult of late but we will have a runner soon enough. Short the market ETFs you could have got in earlier once you saw the Fed minutes were a disappointment to the markets. No matter how much cheerleading CNBC talking heads may do, the market didn’t like what was said in the minutes. I should have got us short much earlier when someone wrote me about being in BIS and I said I liked it and  said the following to him (which I did not translate to everyone else but wish I did);  “It is only down less than 1% today. If you can hold through thick and thin I think it should move higher. Was almost ready to call SDOW, BIS and the other again right now but will wait till after lunch and see what the Fed minutes bring.”

Also, being that oil disappointed it should have given us an excuse to take out some shorts too. Hindsight. But that’s just me self critiquing myself which I always do. I want it all!

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Tomorrow we have Initial Jobless Claims coming i and one Fed member speaking in the morning, then Nat Gas Storage where I want to try and lock in some DGAZ profit with half shares before that data is released.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market

I said yesterday that “within 48 hours I think we’ll have our trades to more than likely go short.” A lot of that will depend upon the Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow though. We get a bad number and make sure you are in some shorts as there won’t be much that can save the market.

Foreign Markets

YINN had me concerned so I have us out. I didn’t put it in the sheet for some reason but we were about flat on it.

Interest Rates

I said yesterday I “Lean TLT still though.” Still do and we are long again. At some point I see it maybe 10 points higher.

Energy

Very happy in taking profit on UWT and GUSH and switching out to DWT. I could have called DRIP as well. I’m sure some of you switched to DWT earlier. If so, great job in reading the data.

Yesterday I said “UGAZ surprised the heck out of me today.” Today we took advantage of what I thought was a fluke and this time I am glad to take DGAZ home, especially with a little profit heading into tomorrow’s data. I want to be out 1/2 shares in the morning on a gap up.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

Disappointed to see JNUG down at the open and also disappointing to not have it close above yesterday’s high. Dollar bounced up at the very end of the day but we are up on our shares. I will micro manage it until we get our run. Good news is that GDX and NUGT turned green on the weekly.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DRIP, LABD, UVXY, BZQ, TZA (NUGT, GDX, LABD new green on the weekly’s)

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

GUSH, LABU, BRZU, GASL, TNA, SVXY, (SDOW and FAZ both turned red on the weekly with the volatility but I expect them to turn green again soon).

Current Trades (Non-Green – Bought/Sold/Hold)

We are finally getting some good trading action. It started late yesterday and even though there has been some good whipsaw, we are overall choosing the right side.

 

 

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

 



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