ETF Trading Research 5/14/2018

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

We managed to get short near the top today and ride some of these higher. It took TVIX though till after hours to get us back to even, but maybe now we shoot straight up to 5.50 for a 7% gain and the last two trades that didn’t work out are forgotten about quickly. A move to /ES of 2700 would do the trick and meanwhile we are in LABD full shares and 1/2 SOXS and YANG. YANG we will have data overnight that can dictate short term, but it has been beaten down very hard and is prime for a bounce. We get any negative data, 5% up is well worth the trade risk here. A move up to 46.69 is what I am looking for. That’s a little over 7%. LABD target is 31.53 or 9%. DGAZ target 9.38%.

The more I trade these and put targets out I still struggle with taking the smaller gains and then not concentrating on them, which is why I have developed the automated service. I want to hold these and keep trading them till we hit our goals. If this means going in and out of them, then so be it, but at the same time, fixing the part where we get back in.

I got a look at the rough draft of the automated service today, and I have to say I am impressed with what I see. I am hoping to have a sample of it tomorrow for you to look at. I want as much as you to start hitting the bigger home runs overall from my calls and not chickening out in the process. I run things conservatively and protect the downside as much as possible as you know. I am trying to keep risks low but not miss the upside. If anyone knows their own weaknesses, it’s me. And if I am developing something that works to eliminate those weaknesses, then the wait will be worth it.

 

 

 

 

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Retail Sales tomorrow along with early hours Chinese data.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Last night’s report I said; “Leaning short the market after 7 straight days up in the Dow, with /ES down to the 2700 level.” We caught the top and let’s see if it holds now. We also scalped LABD already for 3.5% and bought lower, so liking it and TVIX for some good profit soon, but we may have to wait till Wednesday is over with for TVIX with options expiration coming. Tough call there. We are only in 1/2 shares though. Going to ride it for bigger profit and if we fall, time it to get our average at a good price for the bigger move higher back to 5.50 area or above.
Note: TVIX technically 4 days in the cold corner. 
Foreign Markets
YANG we may have got out flat on Friday, but tracked it today and now we are up 1.70% and waiting on data. Upside is pretty good on this one.
Interest Rates
TMF flipped to TMV today. Ignoring these for now.
Energy
DWT we took our profit from and now it is lower. Will look to get long it and DRIP for another scalp soon. Our strategy is paying off here so far and we’ll continue. The key is taking profits and of course timing the buys. If the market is going to move lower, we may buy on a dip in the AM if offered to us lower.
Nat gas is topping out at 2.85 and we may have seen the bottom at 25.06 today. 2.80 break and 2.70 comes into play. 2.86 or above we are in trouble. Find out tomorrow morning but after hours it has been trading slightly lower in nat gas.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Wish we stuck with the JDST trade, especially when the dollar went positive and gold negative. I decided to concentrate on the buy side of JNUG and USLV. Both hit the targets I laid out which was USLV under 10 and JNUG under 15. Will hold out a little longer on these to see if dollar moves up to 95 or not. If it does, we will be very happy with our entries into USLV and JNUG for the final run higher. We will buy 1/2 shares at a time. Last thing the gold bulls expect is a move under 1300 after all this time. Ideally, we profit from DGAZ, TVIX, LABD, SOXS, YANG, and go a little heavier into JNUG and USLV this time. I always like leaving some liquidity to trade ETFs, so keep in mind, while the best trade may be a hold in USLV and JNUG, we are still going to profit from other trades. And by the time we top out and ride everything lower with a 100% gain maybe in TVIX, JNUG and USLV may be the trade for a longer period than normal after we buy the bigger dip based on my deflationary credit contraction outlook. Lots of good things to come!
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

 
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