ETF Trading Research 5/16/2018

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

SOXL and BRZU we could have profited more with today, to the tune of 3% to 4%. It was good timing with the buy, but bad with the exit pre-market. Should have given them more of a chance. Got in some shorts end of day. TVIX is weak again and after 5 out of 6 days lower, and a lower low today, can still give us a nice pop up. We bought near the lows, so like the odds. We also bought SOXS near the lows today too. I wanted some short exposure after the failure to reach a higher high in /ES as well as options expiration for VIX.

DWT and DRIP we are not giving up on. Like to see a spike and profit and reconsider though. Oil data came in bullish and yet DWT was only down -1.36% today and DRIP -2.18%. A good 5% move up can come quickly.

USLV looked good today and we are up about 2% and JNUG a little bit of a laggard. Like to see a move up of 5% to 7% or so and maybe throw in a hedge with their opposites.

DGAZ was up over 2% today and like to see nat gas break down more now. Liking this trade no matter what shenanigans may come from market makers.

 

 

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manu tomorrow. Nat Gas storage at 10:30.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Today wasn’t much of an up day and a boring one to trade. I waited till late in the day to go long what I thought was the better risk vs reward trade in SOXL and TVIX. Like to see a move to 2700 again. Eyeing SQQQ and LABD, especially if we were to shoot up to /ES 2740. Like where we are though.
Foreign Markets
YANG on watch here after a -4.75% down day today. Any decline in the AM and we may buy.
Interest Rates
TMV up again. Thought TMF would do better. Ultimately I would like to see 3.25 as a top for the 10 year if that helps you with any trades. TMF should move up with the market though when the market does finally move higher over 2750.
Energy
See how we do with the DWT and DRIP trades soon enough. Love the charts, that’s for sure.
Got our top in nat gas and we should have some fun today. I was up 4 digits in my trades and am holding off for higher 4 digit profit.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Looking for the bigger bounce in metals and miners and a dollar drop right now. Silver leading the way.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

 
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