ETF Trading Research 5/23/2018

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

The last 3 trading days I gave the following ETFs to look for a long in, and 3 others below that in addition to the ones we are in. I only added YINN and BRZU. We are now long full shares of all of them. We also got the data we wanted in oil and just waiting on nat gas to fall where we have a hedge in place. I will more than likely take that hedge off tomorrow for profit if we go any higher and ride DGAZ to profit. More below under each heading. I am in a happy place overall right now and look forward to you all being there in the weeks to come. I want our hardest decision on all of these to be “when to take profit.” Lot’s of mixups in the green and red weekly’s data below. On Fed day’s that happens. I wouldn’t pay to much attention to anything that is opposite our longs now.

JNUG – 20% goal but possibly more

USLV – 20% goal but possibly more

DGAZ 2.71 in nat gas goal (might have to raise a bit)

DRIP – 10% goal and GUSH red on weekly

DWT – 10% goal and UWT red on weekly

GBTC – 10% goal over 15 and push to 10k+ potential on a market run higher.

And on any dips; TQQQ, LABU, and SOXL.

 

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Lots of central bankers speaking tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales the big ones.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Data in housing didn’t even matter today. Futures pretty much went up all day and we took a chance and got long pre-Fed some trades and post Fed minutes. All in all, up on most of them.  Also got long GBTC by buying the dip, which is never easy to do on such a volatile asset, but we are up over 3% at the close, expecting more.
Foreign Markets
Happy to get long BRZU and YINN. I only avoided RUSL because of its relationship to oil and if oil drops, it would put more pressure on it.
Interest Rates
Yesterday I said in bold; “For markets to go positive, TMF has to be positive and rates lower. That’s what I am seeing, so the 10 year rate should be on your radar tomorrow for confirmation of your long or short the market trades. Under 3% and the bull should continue.
What we got today was exactly that and the market responded perfectly. TMF keeps rising and market should keep rising as well as gold.
Energy
DWT and DRIP as I said above got fantastic data from the inventories with a build and also OPEC saying they would pump more oil if there are issues in Venezuela or elsewhere. Combined we moved up today, but still have work to do. I think tomorrow we take off and should stick with these two.
DGAZ got hit more today and we hedged it and will eventually get the turnaround. If you are hedging, or not in DGAZ, any dips from here are a buy in DGAZ and UGAZ I would like to sell for a profit tomorrow.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
We did move higher in the dollar over 94 and gold shook it off. Let’s stay long and strong metals and miners.  
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

 

 
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