ETF Trading Research 5/24/2018

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

While we locked in profit on the ones below, except for DGAZ, and a small loss in LABU, I got shaken out by the morning spike lower. I mentioned possibly buying into that spike lower 1/2 shares at lower prices than out exits, but didn’t execute the plan. We got a little with the hedge on DGAZ to ease the pain there and I expect it to go higher now after failing at 2.95 area. DWT and DRIP we should buy at the open if they dip or maybe even if positive as both now have their opposites red on the weekly based on my data. GBTC we could have got more from but only sold because of the North Korea situation and sometimes I am just conservative that way, especially on the more wild ones. I didn’t even make an official call on TVIX, but you might have scalped it at 5.04 when I mentioned it for 3%. BRZU got hit on some news of the strike situation by truckers and YINN fell a bit too. JNUG and USLV we locked in some good profit on the spike up and will buy the dip in USLV. The dollar is actually higher again. Either way, we bought JNUG lower. Can hedge with JDST if we have to. Still a bull on all those below. I think I had too much going on today in the amount of trades. Will go lighter tomorrow and use more capital for those than spreading myself too thin.

JNUG – 20% goal but possibly more

USLV – 20% goal but possibly more

DGAZ 2.71 in nat gas goal (might have to raise a bit)

DRIP – 10% goal and GUSH red on weekly

DWT – 10% goal and UWT red on weekly

GBTC – 10% goal over 15 and push to 10k+ potential on a market run higher.

And on any dips; TQQQ, LABU, and SOXL.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Data was lousy today all around and after the Trump North Korea noise, the market ignored the data and shot higher. Why? Because the market thinks the chances of a Fed hike are less now. Funny how that darn market works. Market up on a strong economy and faith by the Fed that they will raise interest rates in their inflation goals. Market up on weak data because the Fed may not raise rates. Either way, market action overall dictates us to be bulls. I’ll remind some of you that for me to be a bull at all is hard to do, so the fact that I am concentrating on going long the market ETFs versus short should tell you my conviction on us going higher and we just simply need to buy the dips when they come and sell the tops, or hold on for the bigger move up into the summer. FAS and TQQQ lower today and possible laggard trades if we get /ES up in morning.
Foreign Markets
Disappointment all around with North Korea and strikes raining on the parade. The good news is, we’ll get long again as the dollar will fall to 93 here soon.
Interest Rates
TMF up today as lower rates come into play. Market may have been red for Dow, but /ES and Dow both bottomed and rose higher off those lows.
Energy
Really thought we would get more out of these two. While we did profit, I expected a bigger move up. Let’s look to get long again though on a good risk vs reward trade in both DWT and DRIP I think.
I think we have topped out for now in Nat Gas.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Like to keep the dollar under 94 and push to 93. Buy the dips in metals and miners. Simple as that with these trades. 
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

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