ETF Trading Research 5/27/2019

Went out on a limb we would continue lower on Friday for a 3 day holiday weekend, and were flat till this afternoon and now futures are up 5.63 to 2837.38. Prefer to keep futures under 2840 if we can and start the leg below 2800 and then 2875. The good news is, we only went with one ETF short and can add the others on any further move up. I prefer to keep a stop on the one ETF if we see any signs of strength left in the market. Nothing that came out of the weekend with China showed any signs of tariff agreements and even with Japan it’s an unknown as to what Trump accomplished on the trip there. Might know more Monday as the market opens. There is still a chance we hit 2900+ on /ES for a blow off top of sorts (blow off of the current move up off of the south move, but not to new highs). You can see I have been more nimble of late and taking profit more consistently, admitting when I am wrong quicker too.

2851 is the next leg up resistance for futures if we decide to move higher. I do see us down for most of June and I don’t think there is anything Trump can do to stop it. The thing is, we have a wild card in Trump and we don’t know what will come out of the White House or Twitter with him.

Gold futures with silver slightly lower. No call there right now.  Dollar back up to 97.80 +0.19.

Nat gas up a penny and no call there.

We are seeing lots of up and down moves in the market and I think we can trade either side, but pulling back and looking at the big picture, we will still look to short any move higher. We will of course look for the right spot to do so. You can see the nightly report is somewhat bearish but that isn’t want futures are showing right now, so we’ll lean to short any moves up until we see a sign that tells us otherwise. While more are turning short, we don’t have the VIX rising enough to get that 20% to 30% move it can give us on the next leg down. It will come.