ETF Trading Research 5/16/2017

Current Positions and Today’s Trades

Today we got out of the mutual fund, perhaps a bit early but at the same time I gave my reasoning several times. I would rather treat these as day trade until we get green weekly’s and have more conviction. You may be buying and holding these also and so far it looks good but I would have a built in trailing stop that still leaves you with profit just in case we have another test lower in metals and miners. We did buy some of the mutual fund back and I had too tight a stop on JNUG but otherwise up on all except for UGLD which is down 6 cents.

I got us out of the new 3 green weekly’s which I cautioned about from the beginning yesterday. YINN opened lower and closed down for the day. UDOW opened higher and closed 70 cents lower and SVXY opened higher and closed 27 cents lower. I call that weak overall.

DGAZ was the star of the day and we locked in profit on 1/2 shares for 3.78%. Still holding half shares that are up 3.53%.

UVXY we tried a couple times on market weakness but nothing panned out.

Range bound days are simply tough to trade. Was happy to lock in profit overall on the mutual fund and DGAZ but other than that, tough trading.



Economic Data For Tomorrow

If markets are in sync with oil then the data tomorrow is the most important data of the day to watch. It comes in at 10:30 so we should have some good action to trade then. After hourse we had API Weekly Crude Oil come in negative with a small build. Oil and futures lower on the data.

The data that came out today helped buoy gold and miners but should have driven the market lower. It didn’t for Bulding Permits and Housing starts but did for Industrial production although last month’s was revised lower.

Stock Market
It is more and more difficult for me to go against the new green weekly’s as I know they can be very powerful. But today I did just because I thought I saw some weakness. It seemed like all day the market wanted to move lower and for that matter gold higher but there were forces at work that wouldn’t let those two things happen. What those forces are I couldn’t tell you, but the fact is the dollar is heading lower and now it looks like the USD/JPY is heading lower also. This should hurt the market and help metals. Also, UVXY may take over for the daily trade instead of SVXY, but let’s not jump the gun here.
Foreign Markets

Neutral on foreign markets. Note on YINN is that it was on the hot list 2 days straight and opened lower, which is a pattern I am still trying to perfect but just tracking it still after a failed attempt to trade it on BZQ. Speaking of BZQ though, I would keep an eye on it and trade it long on a day that it opens positive (up from the prior days close). That might be tomorrow.

Interest Rates

Still neutral overall.


DGAZ showed us some love it owed us from a couple weeks ago. This time we took the almost 4% profit on half shares and are in control of the trade.

Never got a trade in oil but we should have one tomorrow and we will jump on it. Always watch for the fake outs after the reports. Can scalp an initial move maybe but sell quickly for profit then look to see what it wants to do for the longer trade. At his point I am looking lower after tonight’s data.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

I think the data today saved gold and of course the dollar fall. Happy about that for our miners trade. Still need some weakness in the overall markets and if we get that gold should have a good ride up for us.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DGAZ, SOXL, USLV – Keep an eye on SOXS tomorrow if SOXL opens lower.

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):


Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.

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