ETF Trading Research 5/24/2017

 

Current Positions and Today’s Trades

 

We got the move up in JDST we wanted with the shares we held overnight. We made a 2 cent error on a second buy in DGAZ and it cost us the profit we had from the prior day, but didn’t give up on DGAZ and bought it back. With the volatility I decided not to hold overnight again but take the last bit of profit.

I have to make an admission today and apologize for it. I did something very odd today and can’t quite understand why. I was texting many of my close friends to buy JNUG when it went under 16, but for my Service all I said is (at least twice) I don’t know why I am not buying right here, and put in some limit orders thinking we would get one more leg down and get long JNUG and NUGT. Once the Fed news came out I wasn’t digesting it well as I was getting us out of the failed JDST trade and then slow to put the trade on with JNUG/NUGT and finally did and labeled it aggressive to buy over 17 for JNUG and 34 for NUGT. I didn’t make it an official call which might have kept some of you out of it and I’m not happy about that. Still had a decent day trading overall, but my fingers were a bit slow to hit the miners buy, buy, buy button for some reason. Also gold really didn’t do much nor did silver. The dollar also went down and came all the way back up to even which was difficult to trade. Just not happy with how I handled things today and sorry for that. I did get some good trades in JDST the last few days though and JNUG/NUGT we will still take them to the cleaners for good profit.

Tomorrow’s another day. We are flat at present and miners are up against some resistance and I don’t mind a pullback to load up the boat at this point. I actually think we’ll get it. Dollar can still move a bit higher. GDP data could do the trick too if it came in positive for once. That’s why I am not going hogwild short just yet and respecting the higher highs.

 


Economic Data For Tomorrow

OPEC meeting tomorrow and if we can get long oil again, that would be nice. I stopped us out of the trade today only because I am trying my hardest to follow the rules. Same with DGAZ as we also have the Nat Gas report tomorrow. Iniital Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance along with 2 Fed members speaking as well.

 

Stock Market
We had TQQQ trigger green on the weekly today and I wrote up rule #11 on the Trading Rules yesterday, but didn’t implement it today. The rule states that if a green ETF we are stopped out of opens positive to buy it and see if the trend can continue higher. SOXL opened higher and we would be sitting on some profit in it right now. I didn’t transfer SOXL over to my Day trade watch list is the reason I missed it. The nice thing about these rules is all the mistakes I have made for about the last 20 years are there for you to read and not make the same mistakes. The rest is just tweaking the service to keep improving our profits. You will notice I am calling less ETFs but there is a reason in that we really don’t have any trends. The trends we have had long the market ETFs keep reversing. For now, the micro trend is up with SOXL and TQQQ trending first. GDP come Friday may shake things up too, up or down. If there was a good GDP read for once, then the market can definitely shoot higher. If we are up on some long the market ETFs heading into the GDP data I would still have my finger on the sell button, just in case it came in negative. That might be the last nail in the coffin for this bull market. See Interest Rate section below for more insight.
Foreign Markets

BZQ turned red on the weekly after that one day run it had. BRZU has a nice rebound the last couple days. We will be open still to trading it but I expect some volatility. Two days on the Hot Corner for Brazil (see below). This means we can get at most typically one more day on this run or even a reversal.

YINN didn’t do much today but is still green on the weekly and you can buy at the open if it is higher.

We haven’t talked about RUSL or RUSS in awhile but I do think they will give us a trade soon enough.

Interest Rates

TMF took off higher today after the Fed meeting and I am surprised the market held up the way it did. Look to see if FAZ confirms any downturn that might be coming.

Energy

I wanted a little higher in UGAZ before a long in DGAZ and knew we were close, but we didn’t get the move higher and DGAZ took off. We are long and will manage it closely here, trying to scoop up some more shares lower if it comes but still keep a stop. I 100% want to keep this trade on though if we do get stopped out. Meaning we should fall in price for Nat Gas and DGAZ should get us a run. So buy back just 10 cents higher from your stop out on a reversal back up. If we just move higher, then adding to a winning position the remaining shares is easy to do.

Could have called UWT a couple days ago but didn’t trust too much with OPEC volatility. We have the data tomorrow and if it is bullish for oil, BUY UWT! We will try and have a price set beforehand. UWT over 19.50 is the early call. 19.24 now.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

 

Gold never got to the 1245 level like I thought it would. It didn’t even break 1250 and I was waiting for that to occur. We’ll let price action dictate our trades tomorrow.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

BRZU, DRIP, NUGT, JNUG, (TQQQ new green weekly)

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UVXY (3 out of 4 days), GUSH, DUST (BZQ red on the weekly)

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.

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