ETF Trading Research 5/25/2017

We had TQQQ trigger green on the weekly today and I wrote up rule #11 on the Trading Rules yesterday, but didn’t implement it today. The rule states that if a green ETF we are stopped out of opens positive to buy it and see if the trend can continue higher. SOXL opened higher and we would be sitting on some profit in it right now. I didn’t transfer SOXL over to my Day trade watch list is the reason I missed it. The nice thing about these rules is all the mistakes I have made for about the last 20 years are there for you to read and not make the same mistakes. The rest is just tweaking the service to keep improving our profits. You will notice I am calling less ETFs but there is a reason in that we really don’t have any trends. The trends we have had long the market ETFs keep reversing. For now, the micro trend is up with SOXL and TQQQ trending first. GDP come Friday may shake things up too, up or down. If there was a good GDP read for once, then the market can definitely shoot higher. If we are up on some long the market ETFs heading into the GDP data I would still have my finger on the sell button, just in case it came in negative. That might be the last nail in the coffin for this bull market. See Interest Rate section below for more insight.

 Foreign Markets

Yesterday I said that BRZU spent 2 days on the Hot Corner and that we might look for a reversal, but unfortunately didn’t call BZQ which ended the day higher. It’s ok for you to think for yourself and go long these trades when a reversal goes green. I give my insights here when I am tuned into the data each afternoon, and may not “catch em all” to use a Pokemon saying (taught to be me by children). I would like to be able to catch every trade, and some of you write to me with questions on some of them, so if I miss something, feel free to ask; “hey, what about?”

Yesterday I said “YINN didn’t do much today but is still green on the weekly and you can buy at the open if it is higher.” YINN made most of its move overnight but it did end up a little higher.

Yesterday I said; “We haven’t talked about RUSL or RUSS in awhile but I do think they will give us a trade soon enough.” Missed the trade in RUSS today too. It opened at 30.8 and went as high as 32.73 and we should keep an eye on it tomorrow.

I prefer to have all of these on the same side; RUSS, YANG, BZQ and RUSL,YINN, BRZU. We don’t have that at present.

Interest Rates

TMF was a little higher again today. But FAZ isn’t confirming for a short trade. This correlation isn’t working right now.

Energy

The Nat Gas report came out negative for nat gas and didn’t give us the long trade in UGAZ I wanted. DGAZ might have got us a scalp but I did ignore them. Might have a better chance at a trend developing tomorrow, but since there is no trend, any trades in these is more risky at present.

We got in DWT and came out smelling like a rose with our scalp of 3.01% and held out for 9.02% on the last half of shares. We have seen the over 50 long UWT and under 50 long DWT play out a few times and we’ll look for a bottom in il and go long with UWT at some point. Right now we want to see if DWT can continue helping us profit now that OPEC is finished meeting.

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

It was funny how gold stayed steady all day yet we did well with JDST and DUST. It was mostly because they traded inversely of what the dollar was doing. We will look for that tomorrow again but GDP may dictate our trade differently. Know more after that but watch that dollar’s reaction to the GDP number then make your trade.

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

DWT, DRIP, RUSS, YINN, JDST

Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

UWT, GUSH, RUSL, YANG, JNUG, NUGT – Keep an eye on GUSH for a pop at some point maybe tomorrow.

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.