ETF Trading Research 5/4/2017
Today’s Trades
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Important data tomorrow is Nonfarm Payrolls, many FOMC members speaking, U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and Fed Chair Yellen speaking. Expect some action in the morning and afternoon.
Stock Market
We have to pay attention here to a leading indicator with FAS turning green on the weekly. Time and time again we have seen the market fall some but rally once again. SVXY is one to watch tomorrow if the unemployment data comes in better than expected. We have been profiting on short the market ETFs but depending on the unemployment data may flip with FAS turning green on the weekly.
Foreign Markets
YANG we locked in 4% profit and are up more than 4% on the remaining shares. We will see how we do tomorrow and whether or not we get greedy. Did not trade RUSS as I messed up on that trade and regrouping on it, hence the updating the Trading Rules, not just for you but for me so I don’t repeat any mistakes. I am hard on myself and this was a difficult learning lesson for JDST especially, but also DWT.
Interest Rates
Neutral right now on TMF and TMV because of the FAS trigger.
Energy
Did not trade DWT as I had messed up on that trade and regrouping on it.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The data came out good for jobs but bad for productivity and manufacturing. The dollar fell but gold didn’t trade along with it. We even got the price we wanted on the dollar fall and got a scalp from JNUG/NUGT but for the life of me I did not expect gold not to respond better. It did, moved up to 1230, but fell back and when the dollar finally broke lower, gold did not break higher and I couldn’t pull the trigger on another JNUG/NUGT trade. I did say that end of day we might get a push higher in JNUG and we did. Will keep a close eye on a possible reversal for Friday or Monday after the Unemployment data. If Unemployment data comes in bad, that would be GREAT for JNUG/NUGT. I got us out of DGLD which might be a mistake but we’ll have to wait and see. Second guessing data is something I may just give up on and take the lumps in the loss column because many of these ETFs just keep going higher after a slow beginning. Again, when I paid someone to analyze the trades, I got the data back and am still working on understanding how to best utilize this green weekly system. I do believe in it.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
DWT, JDST, DRIP, DUST, RUSS, BZQ, YANG, DSLV (FAS new green monthly)
Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
UWT, JNUG, GUSH, BRZU, NUGT, RUSL, UVXY, YINN, USLV
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities too. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.
