ETF Trading Research 5/7/2017
NOTE: The Trading Rules have been updated except for the addition of the new Green Weekly chart explanation which is explained below. I still need to work on the “Current percentage from high” column. I have updated the percentage stops and profit goals to keep pace with recent price activity. We are getting a little more conservative which I think will actually boost our profit. We’ve also added some more information on how to play green weekly’s that we have already profited from so we don’t miss out on even more profit. Lastly, regarding keeping stops I added another paragraph to that #1 Rule as it is paramount to your success with this service. I am confident if you can do this one thing you will succeed. But our emotions sometimes get in the way of our success and I just want to emphasize this even more from the beginning if it can somehow help keep one out of trouble.
All in all it was a good day of trades. We got out of our last shares of YANG at a good profit. Took a hit on DGAZ but saved us from more damage by keeping a stop. Got a little run out of UWT and took the profit. Took some good profit out of JNUG too. Tried a late trade in JDST that didn’t pan out, but I tried most of the day telling everyone that Friday’s are a day where we may have the habit of giving some back so hopefully most of you took the profit and did something else with your afternoon. FAS is the only ETF we took home and down a hair.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Two Fed members speaking tomorrow at 8:35 and 8:45. No other market moving data.
With Macron’s victory it may for a bit bring some calm to the markets but some of that may be priced in. Futures not telling us much yet as they are flat @ 2397.75 Monday’s I like to wait and see what the markets want to do but we did have UDOW trigger green on the weekly and it will be a buy at the open either way. FAS triggered last week so interesting to see a possible shift, but I need more proof.
We took out profit from YANG but can still trade it long if the markets want to move lower.
Neutral right now on TMF and TMV because of the FAS trigger and now UDOW trigger.
Got a good trade from UWT on Friday but jury is still out on oil. OPEC said a few things via Saudi Arabia and oil is up at present.
UGAZ and DGAZ are playing the trading places game and are very difficult to ascertain right now. Staying neutral. Nat gas is down 3 cents at present and I lean DGAZ. Just didn’t like how it treated us the last 2 trading days after turning green on the weekly, but we have lowered our profit goals to 4% on 1/2 shares now on it.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The nice thing for us on Friday is we ignored the fact the price of gold didn’t do anything and rode NUGT and JNUG up. We then took the profit and got conservative. We do have the dollar lower and gold moving up to 1232.20, finally getting over that 1230 mark. Have to see if we have bottomed Monday or if we have one more trip to test the lows. I think we are closer to a bottom than we have been in a long time. Silver is up 18 cents to 16.42. It is 7:49pm EDT as I am typing this and I have seen gold move up $5 in just the last half hour, but there is no way to take advantage of it right now. It was expected Macron would win and that should be Euro positive, but thought it was already priced in. We’ll see if there is continuation or a pullback in the Euro Monday and the dollar moves up a hair. We are not out of the woods yet with metals and I think the dollar moving lower is nothing but good news for the bulls. I look forward to the point in time we get long JNUG and NUGT along with USLV and just enjoy the ride. It’s coming. Late note: I glanced at the chart again and it looks like the dollar chart needed refreshing at the dollar is up .22 to 98.64 now. We’ll see how that plays on gold come Monday. I guess the victory was priced in to the Euro and it is sell the news. Either way, gold is up 7+.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
GUSY, JNUG, NUGT, UGAZ, UWT, BRZU, RUSL, (UDOW new green weekly)
Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
DRIP, DGAZ, DUST, JDST, DWT, RUSS, BZQ (DGAZ new red on the weekly)
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.