ETF Trading Research 5/8/2017
NOTE: The Trading Rules have been updated except for the addition of the new Green Weekly chart explanation which is explained below. I still need to work on the “Current percentage from high” column. I have updated the percentage stops and profit goals to keep pace with recent price activity. We are getting a little more conservative which I think will actually boost our profit. We’ve also added some more information on how to play green weekly’s that we have already profited from so we don’t miss out on even more profit. Lastly, regarding keeping stops I added another paragraph to that #1 Rule as it is paramount to your success with this service. I am confident if you can do this one thing you will succeed. But our emotions sometimes get in the way of our success and I just want to emphasize this even more from the beginning if it can somehow help keep one out of trouble.
NOTE 2 from Today 5/8: I added the definitions of “Green Weekly/Monthly” as well as “Day Trades” to the Trading Rules. I know the Day Trades addition of that table is helping many of you, and me too, lol. I am always trying to improve and work on my systems and I want you to improve in always knowing yourself and your risk tolerance. Play close attention to what I wrote about JDST below. This is the insight that should tell us a bottom is approaching. I was patient getting long JNUG/NUGT today and even though we don’t catch the exact bottom, I think we are on the cusp of a move. Can there be one more move lower? Sure. But we are closer to that red weekly on DUST or JDST and whether it is this week or not, we’ll welcome it.
We started the day kind of slow today and called it a professionals day early, especially in gold mining ETFs. But then we settled down and saw some trades worth a shot, like LABD and DGAZ, but also had a trade go south in UWT, but we got some of that trade back. JNUG and NUGT we are up on with JNUG being an earlier entry and up a larger percentage. A second trade in DGAZ I thought I was patient in with buying the dip but it fell further -0.93% but I think the higher high we saw today should still work out well for us with this hold. UDOW, YANG and TMV are up from our entry but FAS is still below with a tight stop that we hit but did not break today. I wanted some short the market exposure and chose UVXY just because it the VIX is under 10 and CNBC talked about it so much today. It’s almost like they had fear there was no fear, lol. We’ll see tomorrow morning if we can get going in JNUG, NUGT and UVXY. The VIX closed at it’s 4th lowest close in history. We are close to bottoming here and the run up higher will be fantastic I think. Maybe more bad news out of China might help and YANG is up for us and we’ll stay long.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
JOLT’s Job Openings data for tomorrow and 3 Fed members speaking. That’s close to 10 Fed members in the last 3 days. Why? What are they trying to tell the public? It seems to be buoying the markets whatever they are up to. Thre is no real important data for the U.S. until Friday so the market could indeed push a little higher.
It’s interesting to be in on the beginning of a possible move higher in the markets, but we need FAS to join the fun if we are going to move higher. With not much data till Friday, let it be your key right now. TMV triggering bolsters the case for a higher market. Only some war rhetoric or some bad news out of China might help now and I am thinking I should have waited a hair longer on UVXY. If we get a push higher in the morning I would sell that move.
Yesterday I said “we took out profit from YANG but can still trade it long if the markets want to move lower.” We did get longer and will hold for now. Chinese exports fell overnight and today YANG benefited. Tomorrow night we have CPI and PPI for China.
TMV did trigger to day and we got long. We’ll see if there is any follow through and the markets have another leg up in them or not.
Even with some comments from OPEC, oil turned weak, then strong, then weak again and end of day up a hair. Tough to trade that kind of price action. If we can get a push lower in oil we will buy the dip again. DWT possibly tomorrow if we see an opportunity. GUSH may lead oil higher though so we’ll see if it has any more momentum behind it.
DGAZ overall looks attractive and is in buy the dip mode for now. A little volatile though. Tough to sit through wider stops on the reversals, but we have to trade it long when the data tells us to.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Second day in a row of JNUG and NUGT being up, albeit without gold, similar to Friday. What happens now if the dollar falls and gold and silver move higher? That’s why end of day we went long full shares. We’ll see how it pans out and if we jumped the gun a hair, but I like our odds here. Gold just needs to move past 1230 for our first goal. JDST is now -9.44% off its high. Over -5% here is good for the opposite trade as a leading indicator. Turning red is the final move we need for JDST or DUST.
Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):
LABD, DGAZ, GUSH, (TMV and DGAZ new green weekly)
Cold Corner (the biggest moved lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):
LABU, UGAZ, UVXY, DRIP,. BRZU
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. It is also used for tracking the percentage from high to keep a stop on remaining shares. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out before typically well before they start to fall again. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. You’ll notice in the last column on the right it says “Current percentage from high.” This is your normal stop out for any ETF where I don’t specifically call it per the Trading Rules which lists the trailing stops for each ETF. It is a Trailing Stop percentage from the high and I have noticed the pattern that the closer it gets to 5% the sooner the ETF turns red on the weekly.