ETF Trading Research 6/12/2018

You have noticed a pattern heading into the Fed this week, light or little trading. I think the better risk vs reward is to hopefully get a pullback to buy long the market and maybe even a pullback to get long NUGT and UGLD tomorrow. Those are my best risk vs reward trades but will wait till we hear from the Fed. If I did jump on anything early it would be a decline in TQQQ, LABU or SOXL, however I may dip into RUSL, YINN and BRZU too, although RUSS just turned green on the weekly.

You’ll see some excerpts from Dennis Gartman below. Some I agree with and one I don’t.

Goal for end of Month – Closed trades; 35% more.

5.32% on 6/8.

0.81% on 6/11.

28.87% left to go.

It’s Fed day tomorrow. Watch out! Be quick with profits on big spikes in your direction. The first move may not be the trend but a means to shake out weak hands of the coming trend. 

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

All about the Fed tomorrow at 2:30PM EDT. But we also have PPI an Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday we have interest rate decisions out of the ECB and BoJ too.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
Stock market is still following the USD/JPY and the BoJ intervention to keep stocks from falling. I wanted a natural pullback but it seems like overnight we may get 2800 or a hair higher before we see any pullback. In my perfect world, being bullish, I wanted to get lower first to jump on out 3 favorites. It never came. Below you can see Gartman is bullish. Perhaps we do get that pullback tomorrow.
Foreign Markets
BRZU hanging in there ut in that 20 to 22 range where it has to break up to get on board BRZU or below to scalp BZQ. RUSS turned green on the weekly to join BZQ. BRZU was up 3% today though. Keeping an eye on YINN which should benefit from the North Korea meeting.
Interest Rates
Ironically, TMF and TMV both negative by a hair today. Slight lean still to TMF.
Energy
UWT hit a higher high today but data after hours once again was negative for API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and if it is anything like the last 2 weeks, down we go in oil tomorrow. Hey oil, surprise me for once! Gartman is bullish oil, so perhaps down we go.
DGAZ ended up higher after a morning pullback. I have been buying the dips in DGAZ of late and we’ll see if it continues to be a good trade. Below 2.80 is what we are striving for. Last night DGAZ was falling a bit after hours and opened lower. Tonight it is rising a little bit and may gap up.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
I don’t know how many days this has been in a row, but JNUG once again at the 14 level as I type. I cant break out of the 13.80 to 14.40 range. We may very well have a negative move in gold tomorrow pre and/or post Fed. If we do, I will jump in more shares of JNUG or buy officially NUGT and UGLD for the service. DGLD did turn green on the weekly telling us metals want to go lower still. It failed last time it did it. 1270-1280 may still be in the cards, but we will jump in with both fists, back up the truck and not look back again till we strike California Gold!
A sign of what’s to come for more countries than Venezuela when we see some more currency crisis hit, is the chart of inflation for Venezuela below. Pretty ugly. I know when I was in Chile the Venezuelan’s were flocking to that country looking for opportunity.
Gartman is bearish the Euro which would be positive for the dollar. Perhaps we go higher in Euro and lower in dollar (my take into Friday and bullish gold).
I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday; Don’t really care what the Fed does, we are heading higher either before Fed or after Fed. Can get a smack down at first post Fed depending on if they lean hawkish, but any signs of being dovish and gold takes off with miners. By Friday, Wednesday’s move won’t matter. Also, dollar would fall. I will buy the heck out of NUGT and UGLD or you can add JNUG lower if that or any fall comes. Super bullish into the summer.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

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