ETF Trading Research 6/13/2018

I thought we did pretty good in calling what the Fed may do and what the various ETFs might do too. While I may have sold UWT and GUSH a hair early, I had to lighten the load some to concentrate on other trades. I can only handle so many trades manually until automation comes into play and we are making good progress on automation I am happy to say. Part of the problem is data and some of these outfits want $10,000 plus more monthly fees in the 4 digits and I think we have found a better solution. That’s what’s been holding us back. Now it’s just a matter of programming my rules into the trades and I think we do quite well in catching trends for more and keeping stops on those that go against us and not looking at them again.

TVIX I could have got in earlier, but by concentrating on something less volatile like SQQQ and SOXS I could get a feel for the market better and what lies beneath it. My rule for TVIX I kept to today and didn’t buy it until it went green once, pulled back and looked like it was ready to go green again. It closed at 40.81 yesterday and we got in at 40.85 so about where I wanted. Also, it has hit over 42 several times after hours, up more than 3%. A conservative approach of buying 1/2 shares when I did and seeing it fall further, which I was called out on for having bad timing, we reduce the risk on the downside and bought into strength on the way back up.

SQQQ and SOXS are up and I stayed away from LABD because of the new strength in LABU with a green weekly triggering. We may enter it tomorrow.

DGAZ was lower today but off the lows. Needs to stay above 22. Over 22.50 tomorrow it should take off.

Goal for end of Month – Closed trades; 35% more.

USLV did great today and we are up nicely on it hitting 11.20 today and over +7% before dipping to 10.93 after hours. JNUG got hit as miners fell post Fed as we thought they might and some of you wrote me that you bought NUGT and profited. Good job. One of you wrote me and while you didn’t get hit with your limit order at 13.50 as we fell to 13.44 according to my TD Ameritrade chart, you did get hit at 13.75 with the other limit order. That said, JNUG should have gone past 14.40 today. It is still being suppressed by someone and once that someone takes a hike, which should be soon. JNUG will head towards 20 I think.

Bitcoin or GBTC hammered more, down 6.11% today. Target is under 5000 for Bitcoin. I think I gave out 30% as our goal once we get long. I may raise it.

Goal of 35% by month end.

5.32% on 6/8.

0.81% on 6/11.

0.79 on 6/13

28.08% left to go.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Interest rate decisions out of the ECB and BoJ tomorrow. Important retail data too.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
USD/JPY shot up after the Fed but it wasn’t enough to keep /ES up. Eventually USD/JPY fell and /ES with it. More falling to come and we’ll happily buy TQQQ, LABU and SOXL lower. Meanwhile, I want to get more profit out of what we are long. Could have sold half and locked in some profit but I think we get lower in /ES per the chart I sent out today.
Foreign Markets
BRZU I wanted to buy once we got to 20 again after it fell below, but was too busy with the other calls. YINN I wanted closer to 32. RUSL up with oil but not much after starting the day well.
Interest Rates
TMF and TMV all over the place today. Fed is nuts for adding another rate hike. Who do they think they are? How did the stock market react?
Energy
Data was good for oil and GUSH is green on the weekly. We should look to get long again. I got conservative today.
DGAZ a big disappointment. I have been trading it off and on buying some dips and so far it’s worked out. It falls, then typically has a decent rebound. We need more than a decent rebound to get out of our present trade, and I am a believer it comes.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Things went as planned with metals and miners today with USLV leading the way. We have to look for JNUG to break out here very soon. Dollar to fall harder. Banking on it. Ignore the JDST turning green on the weekly. Fed day gives some false signals and that move down to 13.44 triggered it. It’s either a bad print or relevant to current range.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

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