ETF Trading Research 6/20/2018

I wrote yesterday I lean long into the summer, but I am seeing consolidation before what I see is a decent move down by Friday. That’s why I stuck with these ETFs we are in through thick and thin today into tomorrow. A good sign for us was the Dow ending up red. It is obvious tech stocks are still hanging in there along with the USD/JPY pump, but don’t think it lasts. VIX (TVIX) couldn’t break down today. That’s what I take note of.

Decided to hold off on YINN. It was lower under 29 to a low of 28.71. Expecting market turn lower that might still hit BRZU, YINN and RUSL, although RUSL was positive today, most likely with the strength in oil.

I stayed neutral and away from oil until today, and when I first mentioned DWT at 8.85 should have made the call. We did get in a little higher and are positive and I think on the right track heading into OPEC meeting the next 2 days. This won’t be for the faint of heart though. But DWT and DRIP have been beaten down pretty good.

Yesterday I said; “Nat gas small move up then will get long DGAZ again.” We did so. Like to see if we can break 23.49 first.

We are heading up $80 to $150 or more in gold soon. I am positioned for it but we still might need one more hedge. Dollar was down early on but gold fell a bit once it worked its way back to being positive.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.