ETF Trading Research 6/21/2018

While we didn’t get the big move in TVIX that at least some of you took with my aggressive suggestion, we still locked in the best day overall since I had the 35% goal by end of month. You can see some lean days in there, but with patience, we just set ourselves up for the bigger days. Hopefully the direction I give pays off. The rest is controlling my comments based on price action, which I know I still have work to do on this. That’s why I wrote an update today via email with the title; “Taking profit and reducing risk versus going for more profit?”

Goal of 35% by month end for closed trades since 6/7.

5.32% on 6/8.

0.81% on 6/11.

0.79% on 6/13

0.26% on 6/14

7.79% on 6/15

7.01% on 6/18

10.12% on 6/19 but added the DGAZ loss of -12.44% to give us a total of -2.32%

0.29% on 6/20

11.67% on 6/21

3.39% left to go.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow 

Nothing big tomorrow except OPEC decisions.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
My comment from yesterday came to fruition today.
I am seeing consolidation before what I see is a decent move down by Friday. That’s why I stuck with these ETFs we are in through thick and thin today into tomorrow. A good sign for us was the Dow ending up red. It is obvious tech stocks are still hanging in there along with the USD/JPY pump, but don’t think it lasts. VIX (TVIX) couldn’t break down today. That’s what I take note of.
I decided to go neutral overnight just to see if market wants to bounce off of this 2745/2750 level and also to sleep better, lol. You saw my first pre-market alert was around 2:40AM California time. And yes, wish we could have locked in the 5% in TVIX and DWT then, but that’s life. I waited till most of you could probably trade at 8PM EDT as I try to keep these trades as accurate as possible with regards to when most can get in or out pre-market.
I do lean short the market to 2700 and from there it is a little murky as to what it will do next. I am not in the camp we shoot up, but if we do I will try to find the shorts again to trade. We will get long again from lower levels, ideally.
LABU was 2 days on the hot corner so LABD became our target for the day and we played it well. DGAZ got good news but after going positive for us, decided that was it and fell back a bit.
Foreign Markets
Still eyeing YINN, but didn’t want to take the risk overnight so sold for small loss. Hope I don’t regret that, but alas, most of the times I take that risk I get stuck, so learning from that mistake.
Interest Rates
TMF took back over for TMV. No interest in trading these but follow to see what rates do. It helps me figure out the Fed moves too.
Energy
Got some nice profit from DWT and flat on DRIP and stayed away with OPEC meeting. Turns out IRAN was supportive of the oil production. Will probably not trade it tomorrow but wait for Monday. Unless we see DWT as an opportunity.
The earlier move in the morning got UGAZ green on the weekly again. Will see if we can get a pop tomorrow morning. 2.87 break is what we need and opens the door to 2.53. 3.05 is resistance area.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
The earlier move lower also in DSLV turned it green on the weekly, but USLV ended up positive. Gold did go positive too but ended up red for the day. JNUG hung in there but it is at resistance right now, the place it fell from yesterday. I thought about a hedge today again end of day but hesitated because it was up. Dollar was down so gives us hope. 1266 and 1240 are the new support levels for gold. Silver, 16 and 15.60. Let’s hope we don’t test them. I’m over this fake move lower based on nothingness. Gold should be a lot higher and will be.
Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

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