ETF Trading Research 7/17/2018
July Results (closed trades)
7/2 16.80%
7/3 3.04%
7/5 4.45%
7/6 -12.75
7/9 – 8.76
7/10 -2.75
7/11 11.88
7/12 ——
7/13 ——
7/15 8.34
7/16 -22.20
Running Total: -1.95%
When you break rules, you get what you deserve. When I break rules, it upsets me even more because my stubbornness gets in the way of profit. The good news is, what we sold fell more and we can buy them back lower and add the ones we sold yesterday for profit. TVIX, LABD, SOXS, SDOW, SQQQ. We will be long all 6 of these and I expect good things from all of them. Target is the 2815/2834 level tomorrow. Higher in the morning the better. Metals saw another hit today with NUGT about flat and GDX positive by end of day. NUGT had unusually high volume signifying a bottom in my opinion, which should have come today or in the next couple days. Good sign. Dollar also topping out once more at 95 area too. Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) has gold down to 9 and silver down to 8 with DXY up to 82. We also have the VIX DSI down to 7 with its 21 day moving average at 18. A bounce is coming in the VIX and we should take advantage of it. For metals we move higher tomorrow and the bottom should be in.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Last night I said about /ES Futures; “Need to see them drop under 2800 and we should see the bigger move down develop.” That said, today was not the bigger move down as we didn’t even break 2790 yet. This means we still might have one last move up over 2800 that could break 2820 before a bigger move down towards 2700 with the Fed reduction of its balance sheet the rest of this month.
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
