ETF Trading Research 7/8/2018

Judging from the lack of a new green or red weekly in the data below, we should approach the beginning of this week with caution, but I am going to make some assumptions. I am not going to be looking long, but short this market. Futures as I type are 2762.60 after hitting a high of 2766.25. Below 2730 and the wheels come off this bus. TVIX will be the number one call and if you want to trade it more conservatively, SQQQ, SOXS and LABD or SDOW would be fine. But I will not make the call on any of these till I get the signal we are ready to go lower. Will try and time it live. For now, I am staying neutral to a slight lean higher. Want to see where we are Monday morning and if a quiet Trump gets active again on Twitter.

I am not quite ready to go all in on Foreign ETFs, but we should begin to consider some exposure here. If the dollar falls, it can push these up faster than U.S. markets. I concentrated on them a month or so ago and we did quite well with them. Been holding off on going long with all the trade war issues and we’ll just see when the right time is to go long. Can’t do it with YANG still green across the board.

Trump’s comments to Saudi Arabia to produce more oil lasted a whole day. We got in DWT about where it was prior to Trump’s comments and DRIP on a dip to where it was the day before (but early) and still think both of these have the propensity to move up for us. If stopped out I will micro manage these and get us back in so we don’t miss the bigger run up in them. I have missed those runs by switching to something else to concentrate on and am going to be better at grabbing more of the gains now, emulating what my new automated system is designed to do (I am practicing with the automated system now).

Nat gas trades went against the data on Thursday and continued higher Friday and here on Sunday is down a little over a penny. Somewhat neutral here for the moment.

Dollar is at 94 and would like to see it continue lower but we may get a slight bounce and a pullback in JNUG here first. It has been a struggle up here so many times, hence the JDST trade. Will ride metals and miners till August minimum as we wait for the bigger run. Day traders, buy the dip. And keep doing so. Any spikes down, scoop up shares of JNUG.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.