ETF Trading Research 8/25/2016

Trade Alert Updates for 8/25/2016

Today we exited the remaining shares of DUST, JDST and DSLV. I pulled the trigger because of perceived weakness after a nice run higher as well as Yellen speaking tomorrow and there is no reason to give up profit because of how the market perceives something that Yellen says as negative for gold. Aggressive traders may still be holding 1/4 of a position which is ok going into the meeting as you are sitting on so much profit. Just keep a stop if the trade goes against you after Yellen tomorrow, otherwise enjoy the ride higher. I’ll make another call on these if necessary after the Yellen comments.

Today’s Trade Alert

There were two new trades today. Hold both for now. If UVXY is up before Yellen speech you can sell for profit. I am really feeling volatility is coming but this is still a scalp because the trend hasn’t developed. BIS is a swing trade.

ETF 8-25

News that Can Affect Tomorrow’s Trades

The Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims data was all good today, but the markets didn’t really respond well with it. There is some definite pressure overhead. What can Yellen say to spark the market or will she reveal the Fed’s weaknesses by delaying things further? I think she will talk the talk of higher rates as usual. Markets may just begin  not believing the Fed though. We have GDP quarter over quarter expected to be 1.1% tomorrow and Yellen speaks 2pm EST. We also have the UoM Confidence and Baker Hughes US Rig Count Change for Crude Oil.

U.S. Stock Market

The NASDAQ saw its first 2 day slide in 2 months which is pretty crazy if you think about it. It would have been nice to ride that trend all the way up with this service but I think we get a tradeable downturn coming soon. We are being very patient but today we did dip into shorting Biotech. It has a nice bounce after the call but came back down to the entry level by end of day.

Call:  Still no call at present. Two days ago I wrote “Waiting for futures to fall below 2175 for some action” and yesterday we were at 2175.50 and today 2174. Weaker but not REAL weakness yet. Yellen may give us the kickstart.

Foreign Stock Market

No calls at present. Eyeing RUSS still.

Interest Rates

TLT down a little bit more today. We should see a move in TLT or TBT tomorrow after Yellen.


DWTI weaker and no call with it or UWTI at present.

UGAZ still waiting on a pullback and breakout. .

ERX took the day off as ERY perked up. No call on these.

Precious Metals Market

Taking profits is the name of the game and when we get profits like we had this week on JDST and DUST we can’t look back and second guess ourselves if we are out of the position. When you lock in profits you take the emotions out of the picture and because we have an unknown wildcard with Yellen tomorrow, no matter what metals or the miners do, we might have a play. But why give profit back if the news is good for gold? Why not jump on the opposite with a clear mind if that’s the case? Or if it is bad for gold, we can still jump back in that trend without blinking an eye because that trend is the powerful one now. If one wanted to risk a long in JDST with some small shares before Yellen, it could payoff, but I wouldn’t get crazy and you can keep a stop.

I called the exit in JDST, DSLV and DUST before our stops triggered today, and we did head lower in all three before seeing each of them bounce higher. The call is technically and figuratively out of these now heading into Yellen tomorrow but aggressive traders are on their own now as to how to play it per the above.

Other Calls

From time to time I will be adding individual ETFs that have triggered long or short based on market trends. These may or may not be leveraged. These types of trades will be more for longer term swing trades for IRA’s where we can catch a good directional rise. I care not what the overall market is doing with these calls and will provide entry and exit strategies.

NOTE: Yesterday I said we are setting up for some good reversals I think now. Nothing has changed with that but Yellen holds the trump card.

2016-08-25_14-06-42 a 2016-08-25_14-07-21 b

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