ETF Trading Research 8/28/2016

Trade Alert Updates for 8/25/2016

Below is what I wrote Friday after we got out of our UVXY aggressive trade and BIS trades.

No one likes getting shaken out of trades but when you trend trade, even if the weekly green is still with you, it makes sense to keep a stop and protect profits. That’s what we did with DUST, JDST and DSLV this week for nice profits and with UVXY (Aggressive play) and BIS, even though the latter two are now both green. I will always cut losses as that is the only way your accounts go lower. But I will also let winners go higher to obtain the 10% plus returns.
I don’t chase price but wait for the trends to develop. BIS at 33.27 is right is still below the call yesterday when I first called it (33.48 and 33.58) but it went to 32.31 with the pop up in markets overall.
Gold teased us and then reversed too and the dollar took off over 95.
When market.makers are churning accounts I would rather be out until the trend sets in again and that is why I didn’t want to call DUST lower when I was tempted to. There can still be big moves but I would rather give it a day and we go into the weekend flat and see what Monday brings.
Some of you are anxious to trade and probably want more calls. You can see by looking at past results (and we are working on a page that updates all past trades) that the scalp trades are less accurate than the trend trades. Trend trades are averaging a very good return and with the volatility of the markets today with Yellen speaking, I did say one thing; gold should have shot lower on her rate increase mantra, and it did fall then shot higher then crashed again. This is market makers at their finest. I sit that kind of price action out. Simple as that. We take less risk by waiting for the trend come to us.
We took small risk with UVXY and BIS and because they didn’t continue higher and fell we got stopped out. I have said before I will take some risk now and then, when things align, and with Yellen being a trump card it didn’t work out. We will take the small losses on the way to the big gains. Just be patient for them. They are coming.
I can even speculate right now what they are and I’ll turn some of them blue on the ones to watch list on Sunday.
With 45 minutes to go in trading, don’t expect any calls as I don’t want to risk anything over the weekend.
I do like however (not a call); DUST, JDST, DSLV, RUSS, and conservatively; SPXS, FAZ,   BIS I prefer to wait and see.
Reasoning: Futures fell hard so lean short the market as we hit a lower low. Dollar broke out over 95 again and many of you know I think it can go to 100 and put pressure on metals. We are seeing that and the trend is such.
I try to give you my insight with the nightly reports to make better traders out of you. The green weekly and monthly trends give you more confidence to buy the dips of that trend. I am hesitant to make the calls with the beginning of the service again to do so while being a tad conservative, but will be more aggressive on that soon enough.

Today’s Trade Alert

There were two new trades today.

News that Can Affect Tomorrow’s Trades

The Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims data was all good today, but the markets didn’t really respond well with it. There is some definite pressure overhead. What can Yellen say to spark the market or will she reveal the Fed’s weaknesses by delaying things further? I think she will talk the talk of higher rates as usual. Markets may just begin  not believing the Fed though. We have GDP quarter over quarter expected to be 1.1% tomorrow and Yellen speaks 2pm EST. We also have the UoM Confidence and Baker Hughes US Rig Count Change for Crude Oil.

U.S. Stock Market

Friday we saw the pre-Janet Yellen reversal in the markets of the day before trend which knocked us out of our two trades. Then we saw market makers take the opposite play driving the stock market lower, gold and miners lower.

Since we broke lower on futures to a lower low, and combined with the reversal we have seen in the long ETFs, I expect many short the market ETFs to trigger this week. While I follow many I do so to get an overall trend of the markets but of the short the market ETFs, I have my favorites that give us more bang for the buck move wise. These are the only ones you will see me call for trades, even though I could call the others and show a nice profit as well. The profit however would be less than the ones I will be calling.

Foreign Stock Market

RUSS has been one of my favorites and you have seen me write about it a few times already. If we are going to get a downturn in the markets, RUSS will get us 10% moves probably several times with a potential of even higher profit. YANG and EDC will get us some good moves too. If the strong markets are down, who wants to be in China or emerging markets? No one. Also, China is due for some negative news I believe soon. I addressed in my book Illusions of Wealth and I think they need to still go through a credit contraction similar to the U.S. 2007-2009 era. I will look for some other plays here not listed in the report below for possible shorts but I do think YANG will be good to go higher soon enough.

Interest Rates

We saw TBT move higher after the Fed with markets believing Yellen’s words. No call.


No calls on oil and UGAZ went up again showing strength. Still looking for a pullback before entry.Precious Metals Market

Mining stocks and gold started the day with a boom and we were already out of DUST, JDST and DSLV so no one got hurt. We could have bought that dip because of the weekly and monthly trend being green, which is a good play but not always accurate.

Other Calls

From time to time I will be adding individual ETFs that have triggered long or short based on market trends. These may or may not be leveraged. These types of trades will be more for longer term swing trades for IRA’s where we can catch a good directional rise. I care not what the overall market is doing with these calls and will provide entry and exit strategies.

8-28 ETF8-28 ETF B



Recent Posts

Leave a Comment

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt

Start typing and press Enter to search