ETF Trading Research 9/10/2018

Slight lean long the markets but only scalps if anything today.

With no news and no real data today, market makers fell asleep on the job for the most part. /ES stayed in a range all day. If we break out over 2885 tomorrow we may see some long the market ETFs go green on the weekly. I would trade them long with a stop if /ES fell below 2885 if we gap up above 2885. Below 2875 I only see a scalp potential to 2865 support area where we would go long the market ETFs for the bigger ride higher.

Special note on Cryptocurrencies. We can’t short cryptos so haven’t been talking about a short but we should keep an eye for a long on GBTC as it has been beaten down well. It hit a fresh low at 8.02 today but bounced off that low to 8.22. There could be some momentum carryover in the morning for a few percentage points if it opens positive.

BRZU gave way to BZQ and YANG turned green on the weekly. Even with the dollar down they did this so it shows they are still weak overall. Been to mixed up to trade though. We are however set up for a trade soon I think.

TMF took over from TMV for today. Can’t get much of a streak going in these.

Dollar did it’s job in moving lower, but not breaking 95 and staying there. I thought with the start of the day it might, but market makers didn’t allow JNUG to take off once again and we just can’t get JDST, DUST and DSLV to turn red on the weekly. Hitting fresh lows is not what we need to see with the dollar down.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.