Small trades today with UGAZ the only one we took home with DGAZ going red on the weekly. Expect a bounce up in nat gas where we will take profit and implement a trailing stop. Had some mixed signals early on with UDOW going red on the weekly with the morning drop, but then as the market moved up TVIX went red too. Oil was hot today and UWT went green on the weekly with good data after hours pushing it higher. YANG which went green on the weekly was up 5% early on this morning. I have made mention of these ETFs when they turn and will be more aggressive in calling them, but just still getting a new feel for the system and building confidence in it while being somewhat conservative with calls. Notice the signal in TVIX was good and we should have even taken a position in SVXY at that point where we would be in profit. JNUG put a scare in us today but ended up the day flat. Dollar still needs to break 95 for the run.
NOTE: with any move up in TVIX from news or anything else, and with the market in neutral status with my system, I think an aggressive trade on TVIX can still be made over 32 now. I prefer from this point forward to have SVXY go quickly red again if I were to have confidence in this trade however. Now that I have followed this system a bit with TVIX, I will be more aggressive with buying the dips on it once SVXY signals a red reversal.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
PPI and Crude the big ones for tomorrow.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
The only thing that threw me a bit today was UDOW going red on the weekly. Otherwise I would have stayed with the 2865 support area and buy the dip. But coupled with that was the negativity of SOXL and LABU which are typically my leading indicators. But TVIX went red on the weekly and it put a little floor under /ES. Pretty much range bound ever since that early morning move. USD/JPY did move a hair higher today to 111.65 high as I type.
TVIX has had a floor in the 31 to 32 range but is red on the weekly and at the low end of 31.12 as I type and below 30.86 gives the market still permission to move higher. Naturally Trump tweets on tariffs and what’s going on with Syria can put a crimp in bullish sentiment.
Foreign Markets
All negative right now so we’ll wait for a signal to get long rather than chase down here. Eyeing YANG and BRZU and waiting for my signals.
Interest Rates
TMV took back over as a green weekly and moved up 2% today.
Last night I said; “since we didn’t hit 2.70 then we may break higher for a scalp tomorrow.” We are long UGAZ an first target is 2.86. From there a trailing stop and then possibly flip back to DGAZ.
Yesterday I said; “I do think we get a move up in oil with the market.” Oil led the market today. Still has room to move higher with UWT hitting green on the weekly. Watch /ES for some clues though.
Precious Metals and Mining Stocks
Dollar moved up early on and JNUG fell hard but then the dollar moved lower all day and gold futures went positive and JNUG rebounded. Still in buy the dip mode in my book. Dollar though has to break through 95 instead of breaking higher, so let it be your guide. Also need the short the market ETFs to turn red on the weekly and only DGLD did and it has now turned back green on the weekly. Work to do here for sure. Dollar under 95 is still key. It has bounced from there at least 4 times and is testing that support for a 5th time.
Green Weekly’s
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
Wait for the sign of a positive day to go long anything beaten down, I think the odds swing to your favor.
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
