ETF Trading Research 9/19/2018

Markets wanted to continue higher but only the DOW really had a big move as it was up over 200 points and ended up 158. /ES ended up 4.50 but the afternoon was just range bound. TVIX finding a base at 27 now.

RUSL Continued higher. Two days on the Hot Corner so will keep an eye on RUSS tomorrow for a buy in the next 48 hours. YINN 2 days on Hot Corner and will look to YANG in the next 48 hours for a reversal trade too.

TMF we should put on our radar. Any weakness in the markets and a rush to safety will ensue. It had a little bounce off the lows, enough to get me intrigued.

See metals analysis above. Still all about the dollar to me and I don’t trust this move up. Miners ETFs did not turn green on the weekly. Only that might change my mind that a bigger move is in play here. That said, the double down portion of the trade I wanted to lock that profit in and see if we can’t double down lower again soon enough. Those who are holding 50% non-leveraged stocks I won’t call all in till we get a bigger move down. Was a nice bounce and one can always sell but these you should have a different mindset and think of them as a longer term trade. The temptation is always there to trade these for profit. You can trade your own plan as well. To sell some it would depend on how much you are up, but once we get going, I want to see the 100% plus returns to many of these miners and possibly much more.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!

New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.