ETF Trading Research 9/20/2018
We are getting to the point now of a market turn. Target is 2920, just above the most recent support area. Today I took a few stabs as we got close to the top level I thought we would reach at 2937 and we’ll find out by tomorrow if we can maybe make a move into some more shorts. Taking a chance overnight with the always risky TVIX but sometimes I like to take the risk vs reward potential at resistance areas. I’ll take a 20 point move south for some profit if we can get it and then look long again. In other words, any signals that come for us to short will be slow in coming and by the time they trigger, it may be time to get long again. That’s what the market has done to us.
Same thing with JNUG and NUGT. They have moved up and keep doing so but gold and silver are not enjoying as much of a fun ride up. They haven’t even triggered green on the weekly yet. The dollar is getting close to a bounce area and 93.50/93.55 would be where DUST and JDST should come into play. Sentiment is down t0 8 in DXY. Single digits in sentiment are important turning levels. Remember when sentiment was 95 in DXY?
Nat gas we got over 2.95 and I said it was time to start looking the other way the closer we got to 3.00. We got to 2.99 and once I saw that fail made a call for DGAZ. But only 1/2 shares as I don’t like fighting a new green weekly. So far so good.
Oil moved down today and might be another sign of a market top. But USD/JPY falling here soon is our final nail in the coffin short term, if we can get a pullback.
Economic Data For Tomorrow
Not a lot of big data tomorrow but see if a good PMI report doesn’t give a small boost pre-market. Disregard BRL data below.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and show a trend has developed. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend each day and take profit while using a trailing stops. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.
I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners. The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long. This will be tracked more when we automate the service.
Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit!
New way to trade beaten down ETFs; The way that trade would work, and I really think it should be a rule from now on NOT to trade anything trending down until it reverses, is we would buy at the open if it is POSITIVE or GOES POSITIVE during the day. Then we would look to profit on 1/2 shares over and over, day after day until we get the red weekly signal on the opposite trade that could turn into bigger profits. The stop would be if it goes negative for the day. The rule of keeping a stop if it goes negative for the day is a must. Lastly for this type of trading we need to not be afraid to get back in if it goes positive once again. Sometimes market makers will take an ETF negative and then reverse it right higher again because they know if it goes negative many exit. So we have to be willing to risk a few in and outs when it does this up and down move around that potential stop out area so we don’t miss the ride back up. That’s just part of trading and not a big deal. But no matter what, if it breaks to yet another lower low because you didn’t get out after giving it a little more wiggle room, you are more than likely further from the original stop out when it went negative and you are out, waiting for it to go positive again before you get back in. You are simply buying into strength.
For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/ This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.
