ETF Trading Research 9/13/2017

For those of you new here, I most of the time have the ETF Trading Research report out by 8PM PDT, and it comes by an RSS feed, but you can look at the report here sometimes before you get it in your mailbox; https://illusionsofwealth.com/category/etf-blogs/  This is also the same link if there are any technical difficulties.

Today’s Trades and Current Positions (highlighted in yellow):

Today we saw UWT gap up and we sold before the inventories came out as I just wanted to lock in decent profit. The data came in bad for oil but oil did ignore it and moved higher. We did get long again and we’ll see if 50 is in store and higher for oil which has been our target.

UGAZ gapped up today and we took a stab late, and got a little more than 1/2 percent profit before the downturn. DGAZ should come into play tomorrow since UGAZ is on the Hot Corner for the 3rd straight day. For new subscribers, we have only had an ETF go 4 days in the Hot Corner once.

Markets were negative most of the day, teasing shorts, but ended up positive. We can once again attribute that to positive sentiment around tax reform. It’s a joke to me but the market sucks it up every time. (sorry for the scary look in the pic below)

UVXY got hit really hard. Our foreign ETFs did ok despite the market turnaround in stocks. LABD though we got stopped out of and back in again. It’s been a dog but I think can fly still.

Metals we got in JDST yesterday, sold flat, even though I had forgot I left the stop in from yesterday, but got long again and still did well taking 2.13% and 4.09% from shares. We then switched to DSLV and scalped it for some and got in again lower and are holding for now.

 

Economic Data For Tomorrow

Pre-market tomorrow we have the Core CPI numbers. The last data disappointed and was market positive for gold so we have to keep on our toes. If for any reason it is negative for gold, we may reach our buy targets quickly. I’m ok with that as I think I have the targets priced well.

 

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Stock Market 
PPI came in bad and market moved up all day. Some Wall St. veterans have been on CNBC talking about bubbles but the market goes higher to new records.
Foreign Markets
So far so good in YANG and RUSS, but BZQ a little slow to the game.
Interest Rates
No calls here right now.
Energy
Oil and nat gas see above. Have to lean to DGAZ and stay long UWT and GUSH triggered green on the weekly so we have to look to buy it at the open tomorrow per the rules (this means only buy if it is higher than yesterday’s close and if lower, buy once it goes above yesterday’s close).

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

I like how the USD/JPY inverse correlation came into play again after taking a day off yesterday. We could have stayed with JDST longer, but if you are like most who follow gold, you expected a rebound that didn’t come after JNUG and NUGT moved higher early on. I stuck with JDST and we got hit and profited. But I have now put in some targets for metals and miners. We may get hit and still fall some but gold to over 1400 is coming and THIS time we may actually ride these ETFs to super profit, not just great profit of 10%. This could be the run we have waited for. But gold can still go to 1300 dragging this sector down. Market makers still need to shake off some late comer bulls.

Keep in mind when I make a call on JDST, I do it typically over DGLD,DSLV and DUST because it gives us more bang for the buck. For the most part, one could go long any of the others and still profit nicely if I call JDST. But until we get automated for this service, I can’t spend my time putting in prices on where we are for each update as it would take away from my ability to observe price action on the ETFs we follow. I do keep an eye on them and like today, will make some calls on silver.

Current Price (note these are after hours prices and down from yesterday)

Tuesday’s Price

 

 

See metals analysis above. Somewhat neutral and all eyes on dollar for a continued bounce and USD/JPY for direction. Where is the fear propping metals up? Why are they up with stock market up again? Why is USD/JPY up and metals also up? Some things to ponder.  Why I only went 1/2 shares on last buy of JDST. We probably should have been a little more cautious with JDST because it was on the hot corner for 2 days.

 

Hot Corner (the biggest movers – 3% or more – or new ETFs that are green on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Hot Corner):

GUSH, JDST, UWT, DUST, UGAZ, SVXY UGAZ 3 day sin a row in Hot Corner. Odds are we fall tomorrow and for a day at least, DGAZ comes into play.

Cold Corner (the biggest move lower 3% or more that are green on the weekly and or weekly/monthly or turned red on the weekly – those in bold are consecutive days in the Cold Corner):

DRIP, JNUG, UVXY, DWT, NUGT, DGAZ (watch DGAZ for a trade tomorrow, and possibly UVXY)

 

Green Weekly’s

These are the ETFs that have turned green on the weekly and the dates they turned green. This is used for tracking your percentage gains so you know when to take profit for each ETF per the Trading Rules profit taking guidelines. These green weekly’s work as you can see from the %Gain/Loss tables. You won’t get the exact high with your trade but you will also be out typically well before they start to fall again or turn red on the weekly. Your best way to profit with the service is stick with the green weekly trend and take profit while using a trailing stop on remaining shares. Also, if these green ETFs are up for the day at the open, they offer the best scalping opportunities. I am always fine tuning this section so if there is confusion at all, email me and be specific and I’ll be happy address.

I know I have said this many times but it is worth repeating; If you stick with the green weekly trades your odds of profit increase as there is more risk with the day trades. I call the day trades with the intent of catching some runners, so will get a few 1% stop outs but eventually catch the 5% to 10% or more runners.  The important part of the list below is that the longer the ETF stays on the list (the one’s at the top of the list by Entry Date) the more likely it is to turn red on the weekly and the opposite ETF comes into play as a long.

Sell half shares on a spike up on any ETF you are long, even if goal is higher. Spikes higher are almost always followed by moves in the opposite direction. Try and get out with a market order quickly before the quick move back lower. Lock in that profit! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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